For L, KD and C, the EU election looks to be a shocker. The liberals, who want to appear as Sweden’s most EU-friendly party, receive 3.7 percent of the support in SVT/Verian’s first voter barometer for the EU elections in 2024, which is thus below the threshold for entering the EU parliament.
– It will take a good election campaign for the Liberals to get a mandate, says Per Söderpalm at Verian.
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The Christian Democrats get 4.2 percent, which is more than halving compared to the 2019 election results. The center party gets 4.5 percent and is the big loser in relation to the result in the previous EU election. Then the party got 10.8 percent.
According to Per Söderpalm, the result gives an early indication of how voters view the parties, but much can still happen, he believes:
– Mobility in the electorate is usually high in EU elections, if someone succeeds well in a debate, it can lift a party, for example.
This is how the Swedish people would vote if there were elections today. The question Verian asked is: “Which party will you vote for in this year’s elections to the European Parliament?” Photo: SVT
Strong support for MP and V
Compared to the result in the latest voter barometer for the Riksdag, the Green Party and the Left Party have strong support, 9.5 and 8.8 percent respectively.
Per Söderpalm believes that the climate issue has traditionally been a major issue in EU elections and that both parties have known EU candidates, which could be behind the high level of support.
– Left-wing parties and environmentalists also state to a higher degree than other voters that they will vote in the EU elections, he says.
Several indicate parties that do not sit in the Riksdag
The percentage indicating a party that is not represented in the Riksdag is clearly higher than in the surveys for the Riksdag election and lands at 4.2 percent. Folklistan, Afs, Piratpartiet and Medborgerlig samling are some of the parties that the respondents say they will vote for. The largest is Folklistan with an estimated support of 1.5 percent.
This is how the mandate distribution of members from Sweden would look like if there were elections today. The figures are compared with the distribution of mandates in the last term of office in the EU Parliament. Source: The Norwegian Election Authority’s election simulator Photo: SVT