One month into the fall and already a bunch of political scandals have passed, scandals that don’t seem to have affected voter support noticeably. This is shown by SVT/Verian’s latest opinion poll. However, no changes are statistically certain compared to last month, neither for the parties nor the blocs.
The opposition has a continued advantage over the Tidö parties. In the October survey, there are 5.8 percentage points more who would vote for a party in Magdalena Andersson’s government documents. Per Söderpalm, head of public opinion at Verian, says that it is common for the opposition to have stronger support in voter surveys when there are a couple of years left until the election.
– It confirms the picture that we see in other measurements about, among other things, ownership of issues and the rating of the government’s work. That the opposition has a certain lead with two years left until the next parliamentary election is not an unusual picture, however. The 2026 election is still completely open, says Per Söderpalm.
The Christian Democrats’ support is growing the most according to this survey. 1 percentage points more had voted for the party today compared to last month. A change which, however, is not statistically guaranteed. The party is largest among men aged 30 to 49. In that population, 5.2 percent had voted for the party.
– It is difficult to point out any single reason why KD is back above four percent. There are probably several factors at play, such as the fact that the party was seen a lot in the autumn budget debate, that Ebba Busch has a fairly high level of trust among the voters and that the party’s publicity has generally become less negative than during last year’s big electricity price debate, says Per Söderpalm.
No major change can be discerned in October’s voter barometer. No change is statistically significant. Photo: Anders Molin
THIS IS HOW THE SURVEY IS DONE
Verian’s voter barometer is based on roughly 3,000 completed interviews with people in the Sifo panel – a panel that is recruited via random nationally representative samples. The panel consists of approximately 85,000 participants. The selection takes place between the ages of 18 and 84. The survey is supplemented by telephone interviews with people aged 85 and over.
The question asked is: “Which party would you vote for if there were elections today?”
The response rate in the voter barometer is around 40 percent. The respondents are checked so that they are representative of various demographic groups such as gender, age, region, education and party affiliation in the previous election.
The August voter barometer was conducted during these dates: September 23 – October 6.