How is the examination carried out?
Novus interviews eligible voters and randomly selected Swedes by phone and SMS. 500 new interviews are conducted daily and the article is updated daily with the combined figures of the last three days – i.e. 1,500 people.
Why does SVT conduct daily opinion polls?
We publish daily surveys to quickly capture changes in voter support for the parties during the last three weeks of the election. Between elections, SVT/Novus presents voter opinion once a month to show the parties’ long-term trends. It is important to remember that opinion polls give an approximate picture of voter support and not an exact reflection of the state of opinion. The article does not provide an answer to how the Swedes will vote on election day, but how they would vote if there were an election today.
How large and important is the dropout?
To get 1,500 answers, Novus is looking for about twice as many people. Some do not want to participate in surveys or cannot be reached. Novus ensures that the respondents, despite the absence, correspond to a so-called representative sample of the population based on parameters such as gender, age, place of residence and how the person previously voted. Underrepresented groups are weighted up in the report. (Opinion polls have been questioned internationally, for example after the Brexit vote in Great Britain and the presidential election in the United States, where the voter’s votes turned out to be very different from what the institutes predicted. Swedish opinion polls have been closer to the election results, although the polls have not been exact here either.)
How accurate have opinion polls been in previous parliamentary elections?
The difference between the election results and Novus’ last opinion poll for the 2018 election differed by 2% points if you add the differences for all eight Riksdag parties. However, the question asked is not “What will you vote for on election day” but “What would you vote for if there were elections today”.
Can opinion polls influence how people vote?
Yes, by taking part in opinion polls, some voters choose to vote tactically. For example, by voting for a party which, according to the polls, looks like it will not reach the Riksdag barrier.