End of suspense, France finally has a new government. Editorialists and political leaders bring out political science concepts to define the new situation within the executive: cohabitation, coalition, or a mixture of the two? Some Macronists, always faithful to “at the same time”, have even invented the neologism “coalitation” to describe this unprecedented balance. However, the right word to describe this new executive is much simpler: a government of survival.
Indeed, it is the obligation to survive that will occupy everyone’s minds in the months to come. That of the government of course but also that of an institutional regime to which de Gaulle had given remarkable solidity and which the negligence of successive presidents has gradually deconstructed to satisfy the effects of fashion.
A parliamentary storm warning
If the end of September will have been dedicated to putting out the outbreaks of fire within his own government, it is indeed a parliamentary storm warning that awaits Michel Barnier from October in the National Assembly with the vote on the budget. In a flammable political context, both the extreme left and the extreme right have not hidden their intentions. Jean-Luc Mélenchon claims to “get rid of this government as soon as possible” without “legitimacy or future”. Even before the general policy speech, the choice was made by the New Popular Front to table a motion of censure. Faithful to the practices of La France insoumise, the hemicycle will, as since 2022, be the place of all passions and all provocations. On the other side of the chessboard, the RN opts for another strategy: that of lying poker. On X, Marine Le Pen recalled the fact that “not having imposed prior censorship, […] does not deprive her of the possibility of voting for censure”. But will she take the risk – suicidal for her – of provoking chaos by allying with the far left?
Because a motion of censure adopted would instantly cause an institutional crisis, all the more serious since no dissolution of the Assembly is possible before June 9, 2025! A real leap into the unknown when the extremes are at the gates of power and French society has rarely been so fractured. However, the fatal mistake would be to give in to immobility out of fear. The Barnier government is certainly one of the last chances for the right of government to demonstrate to the French its capacity to respond to their anxieties in at least one area, the restoration of order: order in the streets, in public accounts, at school, and at our borders. It is not only the survival of the government that is at stake but beyond that, that of all the parties who base their speeches on truth, reason and propose concrete and necessary solutions to the French. The result of his action will have consequences not only in the short term but also in 2027. Because at a time when candidates from government parties are legion dreaming of a presidential destiny, Michel Barnier’s success must be considered as a prerequisite for any personal ambition.
Certainly, I have often mentioned it, insecurity is the first of our concerns. But our financial stability is also seriously threatened. The French, who are never told the truth, discover that their country is subject to an excessive deficit procedure in Brussels. While the deficit is expected to exceed 6% in 2024, this is no less than 30 to 50 billion euros in savings – that is to say through a reduction in public spending, not an increase in taxes – which will have to be found in the coming weeks to escape a major sanction from the already very worried markets. And all this in an explosive international context which demands that France regain its credibility as quickly as possible.
It would therefore be wrong to believe that the coming months will only be decisive for the Barnier government. It is, without any grandiloquence, the future of our country that is at stake. Yes, really, the right word is: survival.
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