Supporting votes and political fox games can decide the election

An unknown power group can decide the election with a political fox game.

And it is a group that is growing and becoming stronger – the support voices.

– They can be absolutely decisive for which government we get, says election professor Henrik Ekengren Oscarsson.

When power emanates from the people, the ballot papers determine which parties are entrusted with forming a government. It is the ballot papers that reflect opinions and ideological positions. But there is a group of voters who are going against the flow. A power group that is strong enough to decide the election.

– Absolutely. The support votes are a power factor, says Henrik Ekengren Oscarsson, professor of political science and leader of the election research program at the University of Gothenburg.

The burning issue

In the last two recent parliamentary elections, the support votes – as many as every fifth voter – have cast their vote for someone other than the one they really like best. They do this to raise an issue they think is important, or, which is more established, to help small parties over the four percent barrier into the Riksdag.

A burning issue when several parties, such as the Liberals, the Green Party and the Christian Democrats, are all line dancers around the barrier, according to opinion polls.

– It seems to be very even between two imaginary government alternatives and which small parties come in or fall out can be absolutely decisive for which government we will have in Sweden. The Liberals and the Green Party are a bit below the barrier, how much opportunity do they have to get support votes from other parties’ sympathizers?

– That is the big question before the election, says Henrik Ekengren Oscarsson.

He mentions the Christian Democrats as an example of a party that has benefited from the tactical game. Without support votes, KD would not have passed the 4% barrier once since the 2006 election.

But the votes of support are not just a gamble for the parties. The drama also includes the voters, the supporting voices themselves.

To raise a party by one percentage point, 65,000 votes are required. If what is required to get a party over the four percent barrier, 64,999 votes means that they are wasted. And that they could instead have been included and strengthened the support vote’s real favorite party.

So how can the support votes know that they are not wasting their vote?

– They can not really know, says Aftonbladet’s domestic policy commentator Lena Mellin.

– Of course, they hope that their vote will play a role and contribute to their party coming in and supporting their government alternative, ie the voter’s government alternative. But if the party they support vote for does not enter the Riksdag, they have cast their vote.

For that reason, it can be decisive for a party whether it can count on support votes or not how close to the barrier they are in the opinion polls.

If a party of 2-2.5 percent is in the polls, up to 130,000 votes are required to reach the magic four percent. This may discourage potential support voters who may see it as unlikely that the goal will be reached.

On the other hand, a party that is at 5-5.5 percent in the polls also risks being without support votes as the distance to the barrier can be seen as safe, even if the opinion polls can all play a prank.

– Political scientists are experimentally trying to find out at what point most voters see a party as “lost”, a rejected vote, and at what decimal point one can imagine voting for support, but it is not possible to give such a speech, says Lena Mellin.

– If you want to be a strategically voting voter, you must have as much information as you can. Once you have decided to vote strategically, you do not want to take any unnecessary risks. It’s hard to have thrown away your voice.

Facts

Support votes

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