US growth last year was 2.1%, down sharply from 2021 but still better than forecast. This is largely due to household consumption, the engine of the American economy.
Despite inflation, despite monetary policy and rising interest rates, Americans have continued to consume.
They made extensive use of credit for their purchases. In December, the total amount of orders 287 billion dollars, 5.6% better than the previous month.
With historically low unemployment, below 4%, and thanks to household savings made during the pandemic, the United States is coping. They therefore see their GDP increase by 2.1% last year. We are very far from the 5.9% post-Covid of 2021 but the forecasts were much more pessimistic
The labor market could also save the day for 2023. Faced with the many uncertainties, full employment constitutes a bulwark that could make it possible to avoid a recession. In any case, economists are counting on a very complicated year, this time with the concrete consequences of the rise in interest rates and inflation.
If there is no recession, growth should be particularly weak, especially from the second quarter