Western countries have pledged their support to Ukraine after Russia invaded Ukraine.
– Finland will stand by Ukraine as long as it is needed, Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen (cok.) said today in Ukraine.
EU foreign ministers held an informal meeting in Kyiv on Monday to show their support for Ukraine. The support is strong and long-term, Valtonen promised.
At the same time, the front of Ukrainian supporters is cracking, causing tremors in Ukraine, the European Union and NATO. And especially in the countries of NATO’s eastern edge.
– We are at a dangerous crossroads. If proper commitments are not made, doubts may arise as to whether we are serious, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said before the meeting.
Unity would be needed for military and financial support and the EU’s expansion plans.
The West has supported Ukraine by handing over weapons since the beginning of the war. The support has been of considerable benefit to Ukraine, but its counter-offensive is still progressing sluggishly. The aid given so far has been enough for Ukraine to be able to defend itself. It does not seem to be enough for Ukraine to win the war.
It has sometimes taken the West a long time to decide on aid, considering the war situation. For example, the need for ammunition is endless, and the West has not yet started its own additional production.
Europe should be able to offer countries between Russia and EU countries a route to EU membership. In this way, Europe could try to guarantee that they would not be subject to Russia’s attempts to influence, but would rather be on Europe’s side.
The credibility of the joint message is questioned by the speeches of several leaders of NATO’s border states. The uncertainty bubbling up from the US presidential election is also causing concern in the EU and NATO.
The first impetus for the gravel sounds heard now was a dispute about whether Ukrainian grain can be brought to Europe.
The elections of the three countries are messing up the West’s talk of unity
Ukraine’s grain started flowing to the market via Europe, because Russia has made the Black Sea export route too dangerous. Several Eastern European countries feared that cheap grain would take bread away from European farmers. The Commission imposed a temporary import ban.
However, Poland, Hungary and Slovakia continued the export ban on their own. These three countries have been in the spotlight for the last few weeks.
Along the way, Hungary has had rebuttals for helping Ukraine. However, it has remained in the common NATO line. Last week, the president Victor Orban threatened to end aid to war-torn Ukraine if Ukraine did not guarantee better rights for the Hungarian minority.
Poland has threatened to end arms aid to Ukraine. Prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki said that the country will no longer give weapons to Ukraine, as Poland must take care of its own defense. Later the country’s president Andrzej Duda corrected that it was only about modern weaponry that Poland was acquiring for itself.
The winner of the weekend election in Slovakia Robert Fico has threatened to end arms aid altogether. He said in his victory speech that Slovakia has bigger problems than Ukraine.
Helping Ukraine has also been questioned in the United States. On Saturday, Congress was able to agree on a temporary budget for the next few weeks. However, it lacked Ukraine’s support, which will have to be voted on separately. The majority of representatives are estimated to be in favor of support.
Why are gravel sounds being heard right now?
The unifying factor in the mentioned countries is that there are populists in power or in a significant position. They use foreign policy as one of their chips.
In three of these countries, there is or has just been an election battle.
In Slovakia, the elections ended with the victory of the pro-Russian populist party Smer. The Polish elections are less than two weeks away, and the ruling party Law and Justice is trying to renew its election victory.
The US elections are still more than a year away, but the election battle of the Trumpists and their leading position in the polls is already confusing the situation.
The West, which supports Ukraine, has repeated a few core phrases: First, Ukraine will be supported together as long as it is needed. Russia must not win the war, because the next target would be another state. Russia’s intimidation with nuclear weapons should not be alarmed.
Fractures in the unity of the West and speculation about them can benefit Russia. That is why, for example, Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen assured that the support will continue to be strong regardless of everything.
If Poland were to really end the arms aid, others would have to provide significantly more weapons than at present.
Ending US support while the war is in progress would be a situation that neither NATO nor the EU would like to see, but they must prepare for it.
Supporting Ukraine is expensive, and there is no end in sight to the war.
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