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Russian President Vladimir Putin was credited with a landslide victory in the presidential election. Russia’s electoral system is in every respect rigged for that to happen.
1 / 3Photo: Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP/TT
A fake election result will show that Vladimir Putin has been right all along. And that opens the door to new drastic decisions.
In order to break down Ukraine’s defenses, it is assumed that many new Russians will have to be drafted into the invasion forces.
The election process this weekend wasn’t just designed for Vladimir Putin to win. The official logo given by the Russian election authority for the presidential election was a Latin “V”, which like the “Z” is used as a propaganda symbol in support of the invasion.
– It was also said explicitly when the logo was presented: When you vote in the election, it means that you support the military special operation, says Carolina Vendil Pallin, research leader for the Russia group at the Total Defense Research Institute (FOI).
– An important function of this election was precisely to give legitimacy to the political leadership and its policies in terms of propaganda.
Promised in TV session
In his annual televised question-and-answer session in December, President Putin assured the Russian population that another major wave of mobilization was neither planned nor needed. Analysts outside of Russia pointed out even then that Putin would not say anything else in that situation, as the presidential election approached.
Now many observers believe that it is only a matter of time, because Russia needs more manpower to be able to launch new major offensives in Ukraine. And Putin has on paper been given the green light to continue.
– But it is also a bigger issue. It’s about how much of the economy now goes to the war effort, but also the increased repression that the whole society has been forced to find itself in, and the isolation that you have vis-à-vis the West, says Carolina Vendil Pallin.
– All this has a high price that the Russian people are expected to pay.
“Intervening in everyday life”
After the 2018 presidential election, the Russian government implemented an unpopular increase in the retirement age, which it was believed to have held off on until the election was over. It sparked nationwide protests.
Now it is suggested, for example, that tax increases are on the way for both private individuals and companies, but no major protests are expected to take place.
– Repression is already interfering with people’s lives in a completely different way than it did before. The risk of being mobilized also affects life and everyday life, says Vendil Pallin.
If you are Vladimir Putin, what risks do you see with, for example, an increased mobilization?
– There is a risk in all authoritarian systems, that when the repression becomes high enough, it becomes very difficult to read what moods actually prevail in society, even for an authoritarian political leadership.
FACT Many fallen Russians
In September 2022, Vladimir Putin announced a mobilization of reservists that was said to be “partial” and include 300,000 soldiers. Then many Russians fled the country and the president’s measured popularity fell rapidly.
In the decree on the mobilization, important details – how many can be called up and how long it can last – were sealed.
Tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers have died in the war.
At least 47,700 Russians have died in the war, according to an ongoing review that the site Mediazona does together with the British BBC. These are deaths that have been confirmed using open source data: relatives’ social media posts, local media information, insurance statements or actual grave sites in cemeteries in Russia.
The real number is apparently considerably higher – but no reliable Russian statistics are available.
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