More than a hundred civilians killed in a few days. In Sudan, new clashes raise fears of a civil war. For three days, the regular army has been fighting a militia led by a former ally of power, close to the Russian group Wagner, and now hated. “There is a risk of destabilization of the region”, warns Claude Rilly, historian of ancient Sudan, and director of research at the CNRS.
The Express. In Sudan, two generals shared power since a putsch in 2019. Was the conflict foreseeable?
Claude Rilly. Yes. Since 2019, the very unstable country has been led by an alliance. On one side Abdel Fattah Al-Bourhane, head of the army. On the other, Mohamed Hamdan Daglo, known as “Hemetti”, head of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), leader of the Janjawids, militias who fought in Darfur. During the putsch in 2019, Abdel Fattah Al-Bourhane got rid of President Omar El-Bashir. But he had to take the forces into account, and therefore sealed a pact with who is now his biggest rival.
For two years, we have had two generals, each with their own army. Never, since the Roman Empire, has this situation been able to lead to anything other than a conflict. But the tensions do not end there. In Sudan, the peoples of the West and of the Nile have been fighting for centuries. Al-Bourhane’s coup was to lead to a civilian government, responsible for keeping the peace. But the latter refused to leave power when it was handed over in 2021. Since then, these armies have taken control of the country’s economy.
It is said that “Hemetti” is close to Russia. Can we envisage Moscow interfering in this conflict?
Let’s say the green was in the fruit. The situation was delicate, because of the antagonism at the top of the military regime. But it is true that “Hemetti” is in close contact with the Wagner group, this militia also present in Ukraine, in the pay of a former close friend of Vladimir Putin [Evgueni Prigojine, NDLR] Together, they got their hands on the mines of the country, 2nd gold producer in Africa. It is one of the sources of financing the war in Ukraine. But Russia already has a lot to do, and has so far sought to advance relatively hidden in Africa. There is no evidence of direct interference at this time.
What are the other foreign influences?
Egypt has always considered Sudan as its backyard. Until recently, school books did not indicate the border. It was the colonizing power of Sudan with the British. Marshal Al-Sissi is one of Al-Bourhane’s main supporters. Opposite, “Hemetti” offered the Saudis the help of his militia and won the good graces of the United Arab Emirates, but this link is less representative than the pronounced support of Egypt.
The regular forces of Sudan notably carried out joint exercises with the Egyptian army, a few hours before the civil war broke out. Egyptian soldiers, pilots, were taken hostage by the army of “Hemetti”. He showed signs of appeasement, and promised to release them.
The African Union and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development met urgently. Chad has closed its borders… They fear a destabilization, even a contagion of the whole region…
Sudan is the largest country in the region with many borders. It is therefore an important player in the area. As soon as the conflict started, Chad closed its border, in effect. And there are rebellions on both sides, often exploited by the different countries. They could increase, especially in Darfur.
Overall, the surrounding countries have narrow interests, and are watching the situation closely. An example: South Sudan, independent since 2011, owns 75% of the oil of the two Sudans. He exports it through an oil pipeline that passes through Sudan. This infrastructure could be a victim of war, and greatly destabilize buyers and sellers of black gold.
Ethiopia is also watching the conflict closely. In 2022, the country inaugurated the Great Renaissance Dam on the Nile. But Egypt accuses the country of cutting off its water. The military maneuvers organized between Sudanese and Egyptians a few days before the war were largely aimed at impressing Ethiopia. The country will therefore watch the outcome closely.