The company Matpriskollen, which follows the price development of roughly 40,000 different goods in the large retail chains, notes that food prices rose 0.8 percent in March compared to February.
The reason why food prices did not rise as quickly as in the record month of February, when the price rise was a whopping 2.5 percent compared to January, was that the prices of fruit and vegetables fell. Fruit fell in price by 4.9 percent and vegetables by 2.3 percent during March.
— It’s roughly what you’ve seen in other European countries. It is fairly in line with our forecast, says Olle Holmgren, economist at SEB.
Still increasingly expensive to produce
So far, producer prices for food continue to rise.
— Early in the production stage, prices have fallen back. But if you look at the Economic Institute’s barometer for March, food retailers responded that they will continue to raise prices.
But during April, several food chains are expected to lower prices, at least on some products.
The fact that prices fall back a little means that one can begin to anticipate a slight easing of the inflationary pressure. The question is when the price increases on food are down to a normal level.
Brighter for summer
— Our forecast is that the price increases will begin to slow down in the summer.
Food weighs quite heavily when it comes to inflation, he explains.
— It is perhaps between 2 and 2.5 percent of inflation according to the CPIF measure, which is 9.4 percent.
If food prices stop rising, this could mean that inflation slows down, if energy prices also remain more stable.
— Then we can get down to an inflation of between 5 and 6 percent at the end of the year. You can see a slight improvement, says Olle Holmgren.