It is unclear whether Belarus’ violation of Polish airspace was a mis-navigation or a deliberate provocation.
– It is difficult to assess, but in this tense situation, I think it would be strange if it was a navigation error because you should be extra careful, says lieutenant colonel Joakim Paasikivi.
Flying at low altitude in bad weather and darkness are the theoretical causes of a navigation error, says Joakim Paasikivi, lieutenant colonel and teacher of military strategy at the Norwegian Defense Academy. But according to pictures he has seen, the violation must have taken place when it was bright outside and in beautiful weather.
– It reduces the probability that it was a navigation error, but it is still not excluded.
According to him, the violation could be a way for Belarus to test the borders.
– It’s a way to figuratively drive the stick down the anthill and see what happens, says Joakim Paasikivi and continues:
– But one expects, if it is now intentional, that there should not be such a strong reaction that it could be dangerous.
Don’t want to escalate
On the part of Poland and NATO, there is a clear desire not to escalate the situation into an open conflict. So a strong reaction is not likely, according to Paasikivi.
– The guard is being raised from the Polish side. But I find it hard to see that there would be a reaction similar to the one in Turkey in 2016 where a Russian plane was shot down.
The two helicopters that allegedly violated Polish airspace are common in defense. One helicopter is, according to the information that reached Paasikivi, a heavily armed and armored attack helicopter intended for attack or escort. The second helicopter is said to be a transport helicopter that may be armed.
The helicopters are said to have practiced in Belarus near the Polish border on Tuesday and then entered Poland.
Denies infringement
“The violation took place in the Bialowieza area at a very low altitude, which made it difficult to detect them with the radar system,” the Polish government wrote in a statement.
Belarus has denied violating Polish airspace and called the allegations far-fetched. According to Belarus, the task would give Poland the opportunity for rearmament at the border.