It is very unusual for any conflict to have as many victims in a short period of time as in Gaza.
More than 30,000 people have already died in the conflict that started in October, according to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry.
The statistics of Uppsala University’s Department of Peace Studies (UCDP) show the extraordinary number of victims.
In the graphic below, you can see the conflicts with the highest number of people killed during a five-month period in recent history
UCDP has been collecting data on the number of victims of world conflicts since 1989. For comparison, and UCDP look for the most violent, continuous five-month period from each conflict.
Only five conflicts have resulted in more deaths than Gaza in five months: the Syrian civil war, the Ethiopian-Eritrean war, the Ukrainian war, the Ethiopian Tigray war and the Rwandan genocide.
Researcher: The number of victims of the war in Gaza is probably higher than thought
The war in Gaza is particularly bloody because it is being fought in a very small, densely populated area. Gaza is an area the size of a small Finnish municipality, from which the residents cannot escape anywhere.
– When extensive and continuous bombardment is aimed at such an area, there are typically a lot of casualties, especially civilian casualties. The same happened, for example, in some areas of Syria, says UCDP’s project manager Therese Pettersson.
Since the war in Gaza is still very much in progress, finding victims and keeping statistics is more difficult than during peace.
– The number of victims will probably turn out to be higher than the figures announced now appear, Pettersson estimates.
He believes that there are bodies in collapsed buildings and mass graves that no one has recorded anywhere.
An exceptionally high number of civilian casualties
According to Pettersson, if Gaza is compared to other destructive conflicts, one thing stands out: the high proportion of civilian casualties.
– On average, 40–60 percent of the victims of wars are civilians. In Gaza, this number is much higher.
The exact proportion of civilians is not known because the Gaza Ministry of Health, which is run by the extremist organization Hamas, does not distinguish between civilian and military casualties. According to several estimates, more than 60 percent of the victims of the war may be civilians. According to the Gaza Ministry of Health, approximately 12,500 children have died in Gaza so far.
The proportion of civilians among the victims in Gaza seems to be increasing rather than decreasing. This distinguishes Gaza from, for example, the war in Ukraine, where the number of civilian casualties has decreased since the early months of the war.
Representatives of the World Health Organization WHO visited the hospitals in Gaza warned this weekthat more and more children are dying of dehydration and starvation in Gaza.
Usually, the most destructive wars are fought between states
The comparison between conflicts is not simple. According to the statistics, in addition to Gaza, more than 30,000 people have died in five months in only five conflicts: in Rwanda, in two different Ethiopian wars, in Ukraine and in Syria.
No matter how hard you look, there are no common features in these conflicts.
In the wars in Ukraine and Ethiopia, a large part of the battles have been fought on clear front lines, while in Gaza and parts of Syria, heavy strikes have been carried out on small areas.
– Generally, the rule of thumb is that the most casualties occur in wars between states, because then the parties have the most resources at their disposal, such as the air force or the navy. Likewise, the weaponry is heavier than any rebel group can have, says Pettersson.
These rules do not apply to Rwanda or the war in Gaza either. In Rwanda, it was genocide within the state. And Pettersson doesn’t count Gaza as a war between states either.
Still, the genocide in Rwanda is clearly the bloodiest conflict in recent history, and the war in Gaza is also at the top of the list.
The high number of victims does not tell everything about the ferocity of the conflict
How many people lose their lives in one five-month period tells a lot about the brutality of war in one moment. It does not tell about the effects of a long conflict, Pettersson points out.
For example, the Syrian war has had several five-month periods during which the death toll has risen to high levels. Likewise, the war in Afghanistan and the war in Yemen have both killed at least 150,000 people, although no period has been as brutal in terms of numbers as the war in Gaza.
In long conflicts, entire generations may have to grow up in the shadow of war, as in Syria. Similarly, in prolonged wars, the infrastructure of the region may suffer more damage than in a short conflict.
In Gaza, however, a large part of the building stock has already been destroyed in five months.