It’s the surprise guest of the European return to school. For a few hours, the wolf stole the spotlight from inflation, Ukraine, migration and climate issues. The reason ? A press release from the European Commission, released at the beginning of September: President Ursula von der Leyen is concerned about the “real danger for livestock and, potentially, for humans” posed by wolf packs. Those around him insisted on this alarmist expression and this timing, while the Brussels press had just returned from vacation. Some sneered, recalling that Dolly, the favorite pony of the former German Defense Minister, had been killed by a wolf a year earlier. But evoking the status of this protected species was also intended to be a political signal. Ten days before her official return to school with the speech on the State of the Union, delivered this Wednesday, September 13 to MEPs, Ursula von der Leyen appealed to the breeders, those voters of her political family who are struggling to digest the Green Pact for the climate, one of the flagships of its record.
This ride on the back of the wolf is symptomatic of the climate that reigns in Brussels. The electoral campaign is beginning, it will end next June when the citizens of the 27 countries of the Union renew the European Parliament. The big political families are in the starting blocks. The mandate of the von der Leyen Commission is entering its home stretch. There are only a few months left between now and spring to highlight the action of the past years and complete the last files.
Assessment held “at 90%”
Certainly, the current president has not revealed her intentions for a second term, but her communications services are already working at full capacity to convince citizens of the added value of Europe. They encouraged as many media as possible to broadcast his back-to-school speech live. “Europe, a future worth fighting for,” announces the 118-page document listing achievements and published in advance in the 24 languages of the European Union. The speech on the State of the Union, SOTEU (State of the European Union) in Brussels jargon, should allow an initial assessment. Despite the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, more than 90% of what was announced has been achieved, according to the Commission.
However, some important political battles remain. Examples ? While inflation is eating into purchasing power, the 27 still do not agree on an emblematic text, the one which reforms the European electricity market and aims to stabilize prices by decoupling them from those of gas. The standoff between France and Germany over nuclear power has bogged down discussions.
We must also provide a common response to the influx of migrants. The European Asylum Agency estimates that one million applications will be exceeded this year, a figure close to those of the 2015-2016 migration crisis. Faced with public opinion, pro-Europeans would like to be able to rely on the “Pact for Migration and Asylum”. This set of ten texts organizes procedures at external borders and solidarity between Europeans, but it has not yet been completely negotiated between governments. However, time is running out, because we will then have to reach an agreement with the European Parliament. Failure would be holy bread for the Eurosceptics.
The wolf points its muzzle
The staffs of political parties are hesitant: should we, in this final stretch, encourage compromise, just to show voters that Europe is moving forward? Or on the contrary, play confrontation to differentiate yourself? “It’s a usual dilemma, but the European Parliament is more volatile than in the past, there will be tensions,” analyzes a diplomat. The right even sparked hostilities before the summer by opposing the European nature restoration bill, which sets targets for biodiversity. Other sequences of this type are to be expected. The wolf could point its snout again. Already, parliamentarians have added to their plenary session, this Wednesday, a last minute debate… on the revision of the statute which protects large carnivores.