(Tiper Stock Exchange) – S&P Global Ratings provides that the Italian GDP it will decrease marginally (-0.1%) this year, to then return to growth in the next two years (+1% in 2024 and +1.2% in 2025). At the same time, theinflation it will moderate and the rating agency forecasts are 6.1% this year, 2.3% in 2024 and 2% in 2025. This is what emerged from the “2023 Italy Annual Press Conference” held this morning.
Looking wider, S&P economists said that “the slowdown has arrived” and that “the risk of recession is highbut some favorable factors remain”. In fact, a modest recovery in demand should follow from the second half of 2023, driven by a recovery in real wages, a certain return of confidence and public investment in Europe.
The forecast for theEurozone are of zero growth for 2023, with inflation moderating at 5.7% (8.3% in 2022). The United States should show a -0.1% GDP like Italy, the UK a 1% decline, the Germany a decrease of 0.5%, France an increase of 0.2% and Spain an increase of 0.9%.
According to S&P, things to watch in the first half of 2023 will be both the speed of disinflation that the resilience of labor marketswhich will determine the extent to which central banks tighten funding conditions.
Economists consider it unlikely that i interest rates back to 2019 lows, see labor costs rising, and believe that reshoring supply chains requires higher cost structures (and the need for them to go greener requires more investment).