Élisabeth Borne is angry. The former Prime Minister does not appreciate the strategy deployed by Michel Barnier in examining the budget. The Calvados MP quickly drew out article 49.3 of the Constitution in 2022 and 2023, due to lack of a majority in the Assembly. His successor is the patient type. He takes his time, lets the debate live. However, he is condemned to the same fate. One more moment, Mr. Executioner!
Is there a good use of 49.3? In his work “Twenty months in Matignon” (Flammarion), Elisabeth Borne rehabilitates “one of the strongest tools of control of the legislative power over the executive power”, likely to lead to the fall of a government. What does this constitutional reality matter, only perception counts The tool is unpopular. It generates authoritarianism and political illegitimacy. A Prime Minister can only hope to limit the damage by triggering it at the right time. of “timing”.
Barnier and the “rupture”
On September 5, Michel Barnier announced “breaks” during the transfer of power with Gabriel Attal. They are methodological, as the Savoyard and his allies share the same ideological orientations. Thus, he promises “respect between the government and Parliament”, far from Macronian verticality. The budget review reflects this commitment. “Triggering 49.3 early would endanger the consistency of Michel Barnier,” notes a minister. There, he nourishes his credo of listening.” Who imagines the patient Brexit negotiator slamming the door after ten minutes of negotiation?
As a good judoka, Michel Barnier uses the opponent’s strength. The left and the National Rally (RN) undo its budget through alliances of circumstances. He lets them do it, his ministers shout wild cries about the massive tax increases endorsed by the two blocs. These votes do not outline a common project. The Prime Minister is counting on a rejection of the budget by the Assembly to send his copy to the Senate – with a right-wing majority – and thus delay the use of 49.3 as much as possible. The article would then not be a response to the absence of a majority. Rather a remedy for the Assembly’s inability to reach a compromise.
“Popularity at the expense of the Assembly”
This strategy leaves a bitter taste for the deputies of the common base. These elected officials have the feeling of sitting for nothing and of being exploited. “The government wants to build its popularity on the back of the Assembly,” mocks an EPR deputy. Several of them warn against a weakening of representative democracy, the collateral victim of a political strategy. This tactic is finally full of ambiguities. Michel Barnier intends to impose his own budget, but leaves the deputies to debate in the name of democratic vitality. “He will then have to explain why he is moving away from the copy of Parliament, with popular objects voted on,” notes a former minister.
An early 49.3? You are afraid of the deputies! A late 49.3? You didn’t listen to them! The accusation of contempt is simply deferred. Everyone has their own constraints. Michel Barnier must take care of his image as a diplomat. Élisabeth Borne could not stage the construction of a “Frankenstein” budget by the oppositions. Nor rely on a friendly Senate. Endless debates would only have illustrated an absence of absolute majority known to all. 49.3 is a sport that is played with tied hands.