The drought in Spain and Italy should have negative consequences on the production of olive oil in Europe. A shortage is to be feared.
This is really bad news for French households, even more so for those who cannot do without it on a daily basis: olive oil should very quickly become a rarer product in Europe. The risk of partial or significant shortage in the medium term is very serious, production is already considerably impacted in Spain this year: as noted by the economist Francois Lenglet on RTL on April 25, the Spanish harvest was halved over the past year due to the heat. However, the country provides nearly 40% of the world production of olive oil. And the drought that has started in recent days should make the situation even more tense.
It is therefore to be expected that the price of olive oil will increase considerably. Consumers have no doubt already observed a surge in prices: 60% since June on the kilo of olives, 40% on the liter of oils, and it’s not over. Italy has also been experiencing unusual heat for several weeks, its production must also be revised downwards. In France, production is marginal, and focuses on a high-end market.
According to François Lenglet, who relies on figures from colleagues, we can expect a further 30% increase in current prices on the most accessible olive oils from Spain. We should also expect some market adjustments, which could set up new supply circuits favoring oil produced in Greece. But that will not be enough to prevent prices from rising.