(Finance) – The assembly of delegates of the Case of accountants and accounting expertschaired by Louis Pagliuca, approved the settlement of the 2022 budget and the budget forecast for the year 2023. 2022 is influenced by a significant compression of returns on securities, strongly influenced by the high volatility of the financial markets in the first six months of 2022, derived from the effects of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, as well as from the consequent inflation, generated by the sanctions imposed by Europe and the United States on Russian-produced oil and gas, which led to an exceptional surge in prices. These events greatly influenced the monetary policy of the central banks, called upon to deal with high inflation, with a consequent increase in interest rates, the impact of which reverberated both on the stock market and on the bond market, which have never been so correlated as in this year. The adjustment of the budget, thanks also to the brief recovery of market confidence in July and August, made it possible to contain the assessment of the write-down of the investments recorded in working capital, represented by the Securities Asset Management mandates.
The adjusted budget submitted to the approval of the shareholders’ meeting – underlines the CNPR in a note – shows a result gross of the adjustment items, recorded in the name of prudence, positive for Euro 85.04 million and a Net income negative of 14.15 million. The adjustments that affect the net result are linked to the increase of 41 million in the write-down of financial assets which express a settled figure of 66 million and the reduction in the write-down of receivables for 1.3 million, which lead to the write-down of receivables entered in the current assets at 33.2 million. The adjusted budget – reads the note – does not take into account the positive changes deriving from the re-assessment of previous contributions, default interest and penalties already written down in the past, which will be the subject of the final balance still in progress following the adhesion of the members to the extraordinary provision of incentive for regular contributions, which on the basis of the applications processed by the institution, presented by 20 October last, registered 10,361 applications.
The established budget highlights a slight increase in contribution revenues of 6.7 million which bring the settlement of contribution revenues to 311.8 million, against arrears which in September was just over 16% compared to the assessment of the due contribution.
The expenses for social security and welfare benefits they settle at 247.3 million with an increase of 1.1 million, while welfare services contract by 0.250 million, with a year-end forecast of 7.65 million euros.
The Estimate for the 2023 financial year forecasts a result before value adjustments of 68.98 million (4.68 million the net result). “These are estimates – the note highlights – marked by significant prudence, which evaluate a slight increase in the contribution of members, in consideration of the adjustment of the minimum contribution due to inflation in an amount equal to 4.31%. The contribution is estimated at 315.41 million referring to a population of active members and pensioners who continue the activity of 27,860 individuals”.
There spending on institutional services this is also up due to the equalization of benefits from 1 January 2023 by 4.31%, an estimated cost of 256.37 million referring to an estimated 11,354 pensioners, with an increase compared to the established budget of 9 .07 million euros.
THE gross income from investments they are estimated at 71.3 million, of which 10.95 from fixed investments and 60.35 million from investments entered under current assets, with a decrease of 25.04 million compared to the established budget. Charges deriving from investments recorded in working capital are estimated at 43.02 million, with a decrease of 23.5 million euro compared to the established budget. The net result deriving from the financial management of the investments is estimated at 28.18 million euros against the 29.72 million euros indicated in the settled budget. Invested movable assets, given that as of 18 November 2020 it records a financial return, from the beginning of the year 2022, negative by 10.86% of mandated management, with invested assets at market values equal to 982.25 million.
For the year 2022, the institution expects to achieve financial income in line with the established budget, but lower than the final figure in the 2021 budget, forecasting a persistence of uncertainty on the financial markets, due to the possible technical recession in Europe, deriving from the monetary policies of the Central Banks and the persistence of the conflict, as well as by the slowdown in global economic growth.
The adjustment of the 2022 forecast and the forecast of the 2023 result continues, the policy of prudent credit appreciation towards members, which lead the institution to significantly write down the contribution credits for 32.7 million in 2022 and 34.8 million in 2023. The institution is continuing the actions aimed at regularizing the contribution positions, with the intensification of actions executive during 2022, on the irregular positions claimed concerning the contributions years up to 31/12/2016 which resulted in a mass of over 5,800 injunctions with a mass of over 247.82 million credits for contributions, interest and penalties injunctions, of which 53 million recovered after injunction. “Despite the intensification of the recovery procedures, – reads the note – the action to reduce the arrears originating in recent years, partly started in 2022, remains to be intensified. The situation imposes the need to continue the evaluation of a prudent and sizeable credit risk provisioning policy. it is an accounting entry that intends to protect the risk of uncollectability deriving from the consolidation of positions accumulated over the years, and also to eliminate from the technical balance the influences that receivables – potentially uncollectable – may have”.
During the meeting, the committee proceeded to approve theupdate of the ALM analysis valid for the three-year period 2023 -2025. The analysis of the investment strategy for the next three years aims at pursuing a significant acceleration of the contraction process of the component invested in properties which is expected at the end of the 2025 period equal to 27.7%, with a reduction from the positioning at 30/06 /2022 equal to 34.6%. The real return objective remains fixed at 2.4% net, while the nominal one is reduced to 5.1% following higher inflation estimated over the three-year period (2.7%). The sustainability index is improving, recording a funding ratio of 89.6% on the basis of market values as at 06/30/2022 and an identical expected value at the end of 2022. The growth of the funding ratio compared to the previous analysis improves by 6.2%.
The allocation of movable assets in the next three years it sees a slight variation in the positioning, with a slight decrease on the equity markets, to 30% (compared to the current 32%); an increase in the alternative investment class declined overall to 12% (2% the liquid component and 10% the illiquid one), 51.5% on the bond asset classes (48.2% the current positioning), an increase compared to that of the last year, and a slight growth in holdings from 3.8% to 4%.
The institution also has approved the new actuarial technical balance drawn up on the basis of data as at 31/12/2021, which certifies the sustainability of the pension fund at 50 years, as well as compliance with the requirements of law 335/1995 regarding financial balance at 30 years.