Johan Fredriksson on Putin’s miscalculations that opened the way for the rebels • “Can change the balance of power globally”
The Russian president’s miscalculation began in 2023.
He thought that a conflict between the Palestinians and Israel could be the right medicine to turn the world’s eyes away from the Russian terror bombings against Ukrainian civilians and to get the US to move military resources and financial support from Kiev to Jerusalem.
Therefore, he encouraged (in consultation with Iran) the extremists in Hamas to carry out a terrorist attack on Israel. And the plan was sure to succeed; “the whole world” began to hate Israel (and the USA) and the Russian war crimes in Ukraine ended up in the media’s shadow and China and others could point the finger at the USA’s “hypocrisy” and suddenly Russia no longer became “the Bad Guy” Extra bonus was of course that the price of oil, which is important to Russia, rose together with the powder smoke over Gaza so that the flow into Putin’s war coffers could continue.
Should have predicted
But then something happened that Putin should have been able to predict. Iran-backed Hezbollah (based in Lebanon) was drawn into the war against Israel. Their robotic attacks drew the ire of the Israelis, who responded by bombing Hezbollah’s military and political capabilities. Iran retaliated by firing missiles at Israel. The Netanyahu government retaliated by sharply reducing Iran’s military strength.
And voila:
The Syrian Assad regime’s two regional mainstays, Hezbollah and Iran, were wounded. Assad’s third and most important ally, Russia, which saved the Syrian regime in 2015-2016 via brutal airstrikes against rebels and innocent civilians (which, conveniently from Moscow’s point of view, created huge refugee waves that destabilized Europe) was already weakened after being militarily forced to prioritize the disastrous Ukraine war.
Syria was open to attack. No forces left to defend the country’s dictator and his regime. Turkey, with its influence over the Islamist rebel strongholds that have lived on in the north since 2016, understood that an opportunity had arisen that could be exploited. The regime in Ankara made sure to encourage and support the rebels’ offensive, but probably could not have guessed how successful the advance of the jihadist-led groups would be.
Damascus fell in 10 days. The Russians disappeared with their tails between their legs, the Shia bloc through Iran and Hezbollah had nothing to oppose Syria – this strategically important country where the great powers have fought for power for centuries – now seems to be at least partially under Sunni Islamist rule.
The Kurdish-led, US-backed SDF forces have also strengthened their positions and remain a factor in Syria (unclear how Erdogan in Ankara will deal with this). Assad and Putin are standing with their pants down.
Brutal regime gone
Locally, the latest development means a revolution. A brutal regime is gone. Assad has fled.
Regional: Earth-shattering changes await in the interplay between Turkey, Israel, Iran and the Sunni oil kingdoms of the Arabian Peninsula.
Global: Putin has lost face. All Russia’s “friends” around the world can see the degree of faithfulness and loyalty the Moscow regime acts with when put under pressure. Now the Russians are likely to lose almost all of their power over the Middle East and will most likely be forced to retreat from their important naval base on the Mediterranean.
For the US, a new Syria represents both difficulties and a window, an opportunity for strengthened influence. Donald Trump’s immediately faces significant challenges. A dramatic, violent 2024 is coming to an end.
The world is rocking. The most volatile era since World War II has just begun.
Anything can happen.