Europe would need hundreds of thousands of soldiers to combat Russia’s threat and support Ukraine if the United States retreats from the mainland.
The United States has hinted at the opportunity to reduce their military presence in Europe. Especially European leaders are afraid of, that American troops would leave the Baltic countries.
President Donald Trump Said in February that the United States plans to shift the military focus to the Pacific Sea and focus on the threat of China.
This thing tells you how much soldiers, equipment and money Europe would need to fill the vacuum left by the United States. The information is based on a joint report of the Belgian thought incubator and the German Research Institute and on experts.
1. Europe needs up to 300,000 more soldiers
If the United States withdraws, Europe must increase its military capacity to respond to up to 300,000 American soldiers to combat Russia’s threat.
The estimate has been made in Belgium situated An independent thought incubator and a German Language Institute focused on economic research.
The estimate of the number of soldiers is based on the NATO scenario of the Military Association of what support the United States would provide when Russia attaches to the NATO country in Europe.
According to NATO experts, the United States would be able to support Europe with 100,000 soldiers immediately. In addition, the United States could quickly send up to 200,000 tanks to defend Eastern Europe.
Replacing such military power can quickly prove to be difficult.
There are about 1.47 million active soldiers in Europe and Russia’s military strength is about 700,000. Although there are significantly more soldiers in Europe, coordination between 29 European armies would be challenging in a crisis.
According to the researcher, European countries have thought of their security nationally. For example, Portugal and Spain have a different threat from Eastern European countries.
“Southern European countries are looking more towards the Mediterranean, while the Eastern European countries have a greater concern about Russia,” says a researcher at the Institute of International Affairs. Niklas Helwig.
The United States is not giving any security guarantee to Ukraine against the threat of Russia.
On Tuesday evening, Ukraine approved a US mineral agreement that does not mention security guarantees or a promise to support Ukraine.
Zelenskyi has demanded foreign troops in Ukraine if any contract is made.
In this case, a different in Ukraine should be placed According to estimates up to 150,000 in addition to their own troops.
2. Europe needs more equipment
More equipment would be needed to capture the US deficiency than the French, German, Italian and British land forces at the moment, the thought incubator estimates.
To prevent Russia’s advancement alone in the Baltic countries, European countries would need more than 1,400 tanks, thousands of battle vehicles, artillery and millions of ammunition.
A big problem in Europe is national armies.
Incompatibility causes a major invoice because European defense cannot use defense budgets as effectively as Russia or the United States.
Until now, each country has acquired its own defense supplies. According to Helwig, it is expensive and ineffective.
States support national manufacturers and there is little competition.
– Europe has a mess of weapon systems. For example, when the United States uses one of the main battle tanks, Europeans have 14 different types, Helwig says.
Joint orders would be cheaper for Europe, the experts and report writers interviewed by EPN will say.
The researcher also points out that, for example, US intelligence skills and satellites are invaluable to Europe.
“One major lack of the European Union’s defense capacity is the lack of so -called structural enablers, ie satellites, large aircraft and mobile base stations,” Helwig says.
The Common Report of the Language Institute and the Belgian thought incubator says that Europe should develop aviation and transport capacity and acquire thousands of missiles and droons.
3. Europe needs more money
European countries spend more money on defense than Russia. Nonetheless, hundreds of billions of euros are needed to combat Russia’s threat.
Europe should increase its defense budget by EUR 250 billion, raising its defense expenditure to over 3.5 % of GDP.
4. Europe needs a leader
Germany is the largest economy in Europe and would be particularly important in the completion of a security vacuum resulting from the withdrawal of the United States as a result of the withdrawal of the United States, the research report of the University of Kiel says.
The United States has provided NATO not only military performance but also political leadership and credibility.
US withdrawal would mean that Europe should rapidly increase military production throughout the continent. Germany, in particular, should significantly increase its military capacity.
Senior researcher Tuomas Iso-Markku The Foreign Policy Institute commented by email that there have been attempts to promote European defense cooperation in many formations, such as NATO, the EU and the Land groups, but so far the result has been quite modest.
-In terms of many performance, European countries have been able to rely on the United States, so there has been no need to develop them, says Iso-Markku.
It is clear that European countries’ performance in some areas is probably stronger, but on the other hand, Russia has a nuclear weapon that has also shown the desire, readiness and ability to use their armed forces to promote its political goals, Iso-Markku ponders.