Laurent Wauquiez has no more time to lose. As soon as his victory in the legislative elections was confirmed, the new Republican (LR) MP for Haute-Loire took the pulse of his future colleagues, with congratulatory text messages and more in-depth calls. These elected officials are convinced: the putative candidate for the Elysée is strongly considering taking over the presidency of the LR group, which could be put to a vote this Wednesday, July 10. “He must not return to the Assembly only halfway,” argues one executive. And maintain the image of a presidential candidate hiding, fleeing his responsibilities.
The message seems to have been received. In his exchanges, Nicolas Sarkozy’s former minister outlines the contours of the collective he plans to lead. The LR group could change its name, as the label has been weakened by electoral failures and the betrayal of Éric Ciotti. To one MP, he praises a more “collegiate” internal functioning and more in-depth work with the right-wing majority Senate. To another, he defends increased dialogue before decisions. A way of ensuring greater discipline and internal cohesion. Readability, Laurent Wauquiez’s obsession. The former LR boss believes that his political intuitions have been validated by the verdict of the ballot boxes, he who wants to represent an “independent” right in 2027. Given up for dead, Les Républicains managed to save their skin on Sunday and should keep around sixty seats. The two blocs surrounding the right emerge weakened from the election.
Minefield
The National Rally, unable to break its glass ceiling, was defeated by a resurgence of the Republican front. Éric Ciotti had betrayed his “friend” Laurent Wauquiez by making a pact with Jordan Bardella. Here is the Niçois more isolated than ever, marginal ally of a minority party in the Assembly. “There is a doubt about Marine Le Pen’s ability to exercise power,” confided Laurent Wauquiez in 2023. It has not been lifted. Macronie has finally also recorded a stinging defeat. The presidential camp is dependent on a powerful left, which promises to dominate the future executive.
The problem with theory is that it precedes practice. Laurent Wauquiez is advancing on a minefield in this new Assembly. The LR deputies have shone with their independence since 2022. Returning from hell, the survivors of the dissolution are already promising themselves absolute freedom. To the point of not sitting in an LR group? The temptation to leave agitates several of them. Each to their own grievances. The solitary management of Olivier Marleix between 2022 and 2024 left a bitter taste in the deputies of the younger generation. Their suitcases are ready, they threaten. “If there is no room for the new generation and a poorly managed group, there will be about fifteen of us leaving,” warns one deputy. A call from the wide facilitated by the existential crisis of LR, and the emancipation of the right-wing figures of Macronie.
Hostile to any alliance
LR is a body on borrowed time, the ambitious are on the lookout. Thus this deputy elected for the first time was surprised to receive three SMS after his election: Edouard Philippe, Gérald Darmanin and Aurélien Pradié. The elected representative of Lot, hardly inclined to pledge allegiance to Laurent Wauquiez, is sounding out elected representatives for a possible group. Laurent Wauquiez has been warned: he does not have a monopoly on the easy phone call. And then, what would the right be without the eternal refrain of the coalition? The little music of an agreement with Macronie has been punctuating the life of the Republicans since 2022. It did not die out on Sunday July 7, but the melody has changed. Forgotten, the alliance of the right and the center. Make way for a hypothetical coalition ranging from the socialists to LR. Laurent Wauquiez does not want to hear about it. “France will only be able to recover with clarity. For us, there will be neither coalition nor compromise,” he declared upon announcing his victory.
The former regional boss wants to keep his distance from a dying power to embody the alternation in 2027. He prefers text-by-text majorities to a government agreement. “He is not in the politics of the worst,” promises a close friend. Will he be followed? Two schools of thought face each other. Side A: the right has rejected any alliance with Emmanuel Macron, why would it plunge into the arms of the left three years before the presidential election? Ideological incoherence would compete with tactical error. “The fact of going back to 68 does not encourage us to form an alliance,” judges LR MP Éric Pauget. Side B: an alliance is the only way to limit the influence of the New Popular Front (NFP) in a hypothetical government. Finally, the survival instinct requires many contortions. “The elected MPs are on borrowed time, notes a leader. To avoid a dissolution in a year, they may have an interest in joining a coalition.”
Deputy as a status, the Elysée as an ambition
Laurent Wauquiez enters the atmosphere under this thick fog. The man arouses contradictory expectations within the LR group. Its members demand a more assertive leadership, but more dialogue. They recognize the stature of the man, but warn against the formation of a presidential stable. They fear it all the more since doubts remain about the presidentiality of Laurent Wauquiez, becalmed at 5% of voting intentions for 2027. It is up to the former minister to find the ridge path in this unstable group.
Deputy is his status. The Elysée remains his ambition. This dual quality promises to irrigate Laurent Wauquiez’s new life. On July 8, the man delivers his victory speech from Le Puy-en-Velay. The staging is meticulous. To his right, two French and European flags. Behind him, the thousand-year-old city and its imposing statue Notre-Dame-de-France. Laurent Wauquiez does not dwell on the contours of the new Assembly. He straddles the legislature and already outlines this “other path” to propose to the French in 2027, articulated around the “revaluation of work” and the “return of authority”. Group president or not, it is indeed a contender for the supreme election who is making his return to the hemicycle.
.