The year 2023 closes with the very good scores of the National Rally in the polls. Six months before the European elections, everything is going well for the party of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, which even benefited from the chaotic adoption of the Immigration Law on December 19.
This is the whole paradox of the sequence which has just closed in Parliament. The right has toughened the text. Emmanuel Macron took it upon himself. The National Rally just voted for it. Only here, for 55% of French people surveyed by the Odoxa Institute, it is Marine Le Pen who is the big winner. And even the only one. For what ? Quite simply, because a majority, 51%, think that this law corresponds more to the ideas of the RN than to those of Emmanuel Macron, 22%. It’s barely better for the Republicans with 25%.
The opinion of the French echoes the first words of Marine Le Pen after the adoption of the law. The leader of the National Rally deputies claimed “ an ideological victory “. Which made Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne cringe, denouncing “ a crude maneuver by the RN », while the boss of the Senators LR, Bruno Retailleau, protested: “ Marine Le Pen is stealing our victory! »
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Beyond the political coup achieved, Marine Le Pen above all gained points with the French. 50% are satisfied with the law. Up to 72% approved the eight main provisions of the text, which all move towards greater firmness.
From main opponent of Emmanuel Macron to government party
This political sequence in any case confirms, even accelerates, the success of the strategy of “ standardization » of the National Rally. Concrete translation in the barometer carried out for almost forty years for The world and France Info on the image of the far-right party: it has never been so good.
Eighteen months after the arrival at the Assembly of 88 deputies, judged by the majority to be “ like the others, present and involved », 51% of French people consider the RN to be the main opposition force to Emmanuel Macron. Thirty points ahead of Nupes, which is no longer in the race on the left.
For the first time, more French people, 45%, believe that the RN is not a danger for democracy. Compared to 41% who think the opposite: i.e. 17 points less since 2018. The National Rally is no longer scary and it is considered increasingly credible. This is another first: more French people see it as a government party, 43%, than an eternal opponent. Two out of three, including on the left, are now considering his access to power.
The European elections will therefore have a test value in June 2024. And, here too, all the lights are green for the list led by Jordan Bardella. Five years after winning very narrowly, around 200,000 votes ahead of the presidential camp, the prospect of a duel in six months continues to recede.
The December polls are unanimous. This time, a large victory in the National Rally is looming. He is credited with 27 to 31% of voting intentions, almost 10 points ahead of the Renaissance list, which seems to be swept away by the wave.
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