On February 24, at 3 a.m. UT, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a “ special operation ” in Ukraine. The Ukrainian air defenses are overwhelmed in a few hours, kyiv is under bombs, the war seems to be over. However, six months later, the conflict has receded in the East and is getting bogged down, without Russia clearly explaining its objectives. Ukraine celebrates its independence on August 24.
Six months ago to the day, explosions echoed across Ukraine. Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation, spoke at the same time on national television to declare the beginning of a ” special operation in Ukraine, with the aim of denazify ” the country. Volodymyr Zelensky then called for the resistance of his people and declared martial law. The international community sought to contain the conflict, without intervening directly.
Looking back, these six months of war suggest an inextricable conflict, the resolution of which is still uncertain. Time has changed the doctrines of all the parties involved directly or indirectly in the conflict, and the vagueness skilfully maintained by each suggests a long-term war.
Uncertain Russian objectives
What did Russia want in Ukraine? Even today, difficult to answer. Originally, the stated goal of Vladimir Putin was the ” denazification » and the « demilitarization ” from the country. Denazification not being than a pretext argumentdemilitarization and territorial gains seem instead to be at the heart of the Russian decision to invade Ukraine.
Three hours after the start of the invasion, ” the military infrastructure of the airbases of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was decommissioned “Said the Russian Ministry of Defense, quoted by Russian news agencies. ” The air defense installations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed “, he adds. At 7 p.m. UT, the Antonov military airport in Gostomel, at the gates of kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, fell, and the capital was surrounded. Demilitarization then seemed an achievable goal for Russia, the Ukrainian army seemed disorganized, but quickly, the counter-offensive was organized and the supply of weapons by the West warded off a possible demilitarization.
Vladimir Putin has always considered theUkraine as an error of history, a part of Russia that should have been in its lap. Taking advantage of a rapid advance throughout Ukraine in the early hours, the Russian army seems willing and able to conquer all the territory. But after this spectacular advance, the pockets of Ukrainian resistance are consolidating. April 2nd, 38 days after the start of the invasion, the kyiv region was taken over by the Ukrainians, taking advantage of the rapid withdrawal of the Russians. Two weeks later, the conflict focuses on Donbass and the south of the country.
Did Vladimir Putin foresee this tactical retreat or did he underestimate the Ukrainian army? A senior Russian official will declare on Friday April 22: one of the goals of the Russian military is to establish full control over Donbass and southern Ukraine “, speaking of a” second phase of the special operation aiming, among other things, to securing a land corridor to Crimea “.
Resistance in blood for Ukraine
” We are not aggressive towards the Ukrainian people, but towards the ruling junta in Kyiv asserted the Russian ambassador to the UN, Vassily Nebenzia, at the end of his speech before the United Nations Security Council on 24 February. Six months later, the junta is still in power, and the Ukrainian people are attacked in the flesh and blood. The abuses have multipliedand the first Russian soldier was convicted of a war crime on May 23. The population fled en masse to neighboring countries before returning timidly and the number of Ukrainian military deaths is estimated at 9,000 according to the Ukrainian army, figures subject to caution.
I always feel like I’m not at home. I feel bad. I have pain every morning when I wake up. I’m worried about my friends all back in Ukraine. I feel like a refugee. My biggest wish? That all my friends are alive, which is not the case, I lost three of them. Two as soldiers, and a third was assassinated at Boutcha.
Report with Anna, a Ukrainian refugee in Berlin
Overwhelmed in the early hours of the invasion, Ukraine fought back in the weeks that followed, pushing Russian forces south and east. Over time, however, the Ukrainian army suffered and struggled to continue its counter-attack. The concrete objectives of Volodymyr Zelensky are also very vague. The Ukrainian offensive in the Kherson region is still on hold, pending the destruction of a highly strategic bridge for the Russians and a reinforcement of the capacities of the Ukrainian army.
President Zelensky announces that he wants to reconquer all the territories conquered by Russia, not only those recently conquered, but also those of 2014, which includes Crimea. After a first attempt at mediation which took place in Istanbul and which failed in which it was understood that there would perhaps be concessions which would be made on the territorial level, today President Zelensky is playing the card maximum. So much for President Zelensky’s speech. On the ground, Ukrainian progress is very slow. Each of the protagonists seeks to have a maximum of gains before winter. Because operations will naturally slow down from November.
General Dominique Trinquand discusses Ukrainian objectives between the field and speeches
Additionally, recent attacks on Russian military infrastructure in Crimea are in line with President Volodymyr Zelensky’s desire to retake the territory conquered by Russia in 2014. ” It all started with Crimea, and it will all end with Crimea “, he said on Tuesday, August 23 during the “Crimea platform”. An ambitious statement to compensate, perhaps, for its decline in popularity after recent revelations from washington post. Having gone through a phase of survival and then recovery of its occupied zones after the start of the conflict, Ukraine seems to be heading little by little towards a phase of reconquest beyond its recent borders. At the risk of stirring up the wrath of the Kremlin a little more.
The United States and NATO at a distance
From the start of the conflict, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky asked Joe Biden, “ to urge world leaders to speak out clearly against President Putin’s blatant aggression, and to stand with the people of Ukraine “. If the condemnations are almost unanimous in the international community, quickly, the crux of the problem appears. How to help Ukraine, without becoming a co-belligerent, and without risking total nuclear war?
Six months after the start of a conflict that he had unsuccessfully tried to prevent by going to Moscow and then to kyiv as a last-ditch mediator. Emmanuel Macron is approaching this new stage by relaunching his telephone dialogue with Vladimir Putin, which he had interrupted at the end of May under the fire of certain criticisms of the ineffectiveness of his exchanges with the Russian president.
Macron and the war in Ukraine
The economic sanctions first multiplied on the side of the West. One by one, the Russian oligarchs are sanctioned, many foreign companies suspend their activities on Russian territory, gradually isolating Russia on the international scene.
Russian sport, overall, is on “stand by”. Athletes compete among themselves through competitions built on a national scale, even international with certain allied countries, therefore Belarus, Armenia for example, but it is relatively rare. The objective for the Russian authorities is to give the athletes the illusion that the Russian sporting model is not so affected.
The consequences of the exclusion of Russian athletes
On the side of military support, a “weird” war then takes place. NATO is activating its defense plans to deploy additional forces in the member countries of Eastern Europe from February 24. But its secretary general Jens Stoltenberg specifies that NATO has no troops in Ukraine and has no plans to deploy any.
NATO is nevertheless involved in the conflict, with weapons delivered by Germany from the third day of the conflict. But in the same way that Russia pretends not to know that Ukraine is bombing its warehouses in Crimea, it also chooses not to retaliate head-on when NATO delivers increasingly developed weapons to Ukraine. The deliveries, however, go from light weapons to artillery elements, without however going as far as the planes desired by Ukraine.
We must cut these supply chains so that our soldiers can liberate the territory when the time comes, when they are ready and have enough weapons to launch the counter-offensive. This is also why we are targeting ammunition depots in the occupied Donbass or the Kherson region. And it is for this reason that we need Western high-precision weapons, which can hit very specifically where the stocks are. Especially since, as you know, we now have permanent access to satellite data, so our soldiers know exactly where to aim.
Yevheniia Kravchuk (Ukrainian MP): “We need Western high-precision weapons”
This “war in distance” has very real effects in Germany and in many European countries that depend on Russian gas and coal. The energy tap has dried up in retaliation for sanctions and arms shipments, even as winter concerns mount. The European Union therefore aims reduced energy consumption to compensate for this drop in supply.
►Also read: The ruble, a formidable Russian monetary weapon despite the sanctions
An endless conflict?
For several weeks, the situation has been bogged down across the country. Already, on June 19, the Secretary General of NATO feared that the war in Ukraine would extend over a long period. ” We must be prepared that this may last for years “, confided then Jens Stoltenberg to the German newspaper Picture. Two months later, events seem to prove him right.
But in a situation of status quo where stakeholders are entrenched in their positions, any new element could accelerate the conflict. August 24 could thus be a factor of renewed tension. Ukraine is celebrating 31 years of independence, exactly six months after the start of the conflict. The death of Daria Dougina, daughter of a pro-Kremlin imperialist ideologue, in an attack in the heart of Moscow adds additional tension, with the Russian secret services accusing Ukraine. ” It was a barbaric crime for which there can be no forgiveness […]. There can be no mercy for organizers, sponsors and performers said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on August 23.