D-day has arrived: after months of a campaign of rare violence, Americans are going to the polls this Tuesday, November 5, 2024. If the first results will begin to fall on the night of November 6 (French time), after the closure of the first polling stations across the Atlantic, the outcome of the vote could take several days before being known. And, during this time, evolve widely over the course of the analysis – until, in absolute terms, contradicting the initial trends. At issue: a phenomenon of “vote mirage”, well identified in recent years.
During the 2020 presidential election, a “red mirage” (the color of the Republicans), also called a “blue change” (that of the Democrats), occurred between the time of the counting of the first ballots and the final result. In certain key states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania, the initial lead that Donald Trump seemed to enjoy had melted away as the votes were counted, before Joe Biden regained the lead in the hours and days that followed. A phenomenon that the billionaire and his supporters had largely used to cry, without proof, about electoral fraud.
Optical illusion
“The red mirage is an optical illusion in which the initial results are favorable to Republicans, because some votes – early or absentee – are counted later, and are structurally more favorable to Democrats who use these ways of voting more , explains Lauric Henneton, lecturer at the University of Versailles Saint-Quentin. This situation can therefore potentially tip the final result in a State where one of the candidates seemed on track to win at the start of the counting. “
Unlike the Democrats who favored postal voting in 2020, the politicization of the Covid issue by Donald Trump led many of his supporters to go directly to the polling station to slip their ballot into the ballot box. These being the first to be counted in several states such as Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, they had de facto been over-represented in the initial results, giving the illusion of a lead for the ex-president. According to a study from the Pew Research Center, 58% of Joe Biden’s voters voted by mail in 2020, compared to only 32% of Donald Trump’s voters.
Beyond partisan preferences in the way of voting, electoral geography can also influence the voting mirage. A study of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology revealed that in most states, small Republican counties were the fastest to count in 2020. Unlike large urban centers – generally favorable to Democrats – which bring together more voters per office voting, the logistics of counting votes in smaller rural constituencies takes less time and allows results to be reported more quickly.
Uncertainty about the extent of the phenomenon
Should we therefore expect, as in 2020, a large-scale phenomenon? For now, the first data seem to point towards a more nuanced effect. According to the Florida Election Lab from the University of Florida, the number of people who had voted early as of November 4 was 15.4 million Democrats and 14.6 million Republicans. “If the imbalance between the two parties is less significant, the red mirage could be less in the first results, with the corollary being a less significant Democratic catch-up at the end of the count,” summarizes Lauric Henneton.
At the same time, some states have modified their legislation since the 2020 election to allow for faster counting of votes. In Michigan, the counting of absentee ballots can now begin before Election Day, reducing the effects of voting mirage. In Georgia, it is even a “blue mirage” that could occur. With the results of early and absentee ballots expected to be reported by 8 p.m. on election night, a slight Democratic lead could fade as Election Day votes are later counted.
Whatever the case, Donald Trump’s camp did not wait to cry wolf. On October 30, the ex-president denounced “cheating” on a “scale never seen before” in Pennsylvania, citing an investigation into a batch of 2,500 voter registration applications containing inaccuracies. At the same time, more than 200 electoral disputes are already underway in around forty states, suggesting that the Republican leader could refuse to recognize his defeat if he is beaten unless, he says,…” if the election is fair. There is no doubt that, if necessary, he will be able to use any mirage of votes to his advantage.
.