On Sunday, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu discussed with several NATO defense ministers about Russia’s concern that Ukraine would carry out an attack with a so-called dirty bomb.
Director of the research college of the University of Helsinki Tuomas Forsberg tells in the morning how one theory the Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigun the background of the weekend round of calls is Russia’s effort to seek justification for the attacks it planned.
However, Forsberg points out that no major party in the West believes that Ukraine is planning a dirty bomb, i.e. an explosive containing radioactive material, in Ukraine.
If Russia itself is not preparing something, it is a matter of shifting attention elsewhere. According to Forsberg, the call round can be used for example for additional motivation to maintain the war against Ukraine.
However, Forsberg considers playing rounds important, but hopes they are used better. In general, there would be an opportunity to make progress towards ending the war in the calling rounds.
Working life professor Martti J. Kari considers Russia’s contacts with various defense ministers as a typical Russian game tactic.
– The Russians make an argument, but the opposing side is left with the responsibility of presenting the evidence, says Kari.
Šoigu played in France, the United States, Britain and Turkey.
– He looks at what the strongest United States and the softest France say. He finds out if the story goes through somewhere, Kari explains.
Russian war tactics predictable
Russia has continued its attacks on power plants around Ukraine, and Kiev has even had to resort to blackouts.
However, Kari believes that the Ukrainians have prepared for the situation, because Russia has used very typical war tactics developed by the United States for the Iraq war in the 90s.
According to Kari, they first tried to destroy the leadership and then the armed forces, but neither succeeded. Finally, we moved on to infrastructure and population.
Forsberg sees that Russia’s war tactics aim to put pressure on the people. We think that the winter would bring so much pressure that Ukraine and Western Europe would be ready to negotiate a temporary ceasefire in the war, which has gone worse for Russia in recent months.
According to Forsberg, if you look at history, air warfare and destroying infrastructure is not a sound strategy.
– The aerial bombardments of shopping malls have not led to a decrease in citizens’ will to defend themselves, on the contrary, says Forsberg.
According to Forsberg, Russia’s success in the war does not look particularly good at the moment.
A new phase of mobilization is underway. It has led to greater opposition to the Russian regime.
– But whether it is the turning point of the war, it is difficult to say, Forsberg sums up.
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