Was there any doubt that Erdogan would sign?
After both the foreign affairs committee and the Turkish parliament approved the Swedish NATO application, it would have been very difficult for President Erdogan not to sign. He controls the majority in parliament so of course he knew all along that there would be approval – after he brought the issue to the foreign affairs committee.
However, there has been speculation that he would wait to sign so that Hungary could take a long time with their process. That was not the case.
Erdogan would probably rather speed up the F16 process in the US Congress than wait for a capricious Orban.
Did he get anything in return?
The long process has been tough for Sweden, but Turkish President Erdogan has been a sharp negotiator. He has received a lot of things in return. Sweden has lifted arms sanctions, reduced its support for the Kurdish parties in Syria and tightened the noose around PKK supporters – just as Erdogan wanted.
He has also shown all NATO countries what position Turkey has in the NATO alliance.
In addition, US President Biden has now sent a call to members of Congress regarding the F16 fighter jet that Turkey wants to buy. That process has also led to the softening of the very tense relations with Greece.
All this at the same time as he continues to be in contact with Putin, Iran’s Prime Minister Raisi was visiting Ankara on Wednesday and the criticism of Israel is abundantly clear. Erdogan is likely satisfied with the result.
What will happen in the F16 issue now?
Even after US Secretary of State Blinken’s visit to Turkey a couple of weeks ago, there was speculation that the F16 deal had made progress. After Turkey approved the Swedish NATO application, the matter would be sent to Congress, which investigates the matter. There have been skeptics of F16 sales to Turkey in the past within Congress, but it remains to be seen if any obstacles remain.
When will Hungary’s approval come?
Despite promises that they would not be the last, they are now the last. Without having anything to negotiate, or clear demands.
In recent days, conflicting signals have continued to come from Hungary, but it is likely that they will address the issue after the winter break or call an urgent extraordinary meeting. It’s not so fun to be completely alone against all the NATO countries.