On Saturday night, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi called on all civilians in Donetsk to leave the region.
“The more people who leave the Donetsk region now, the fewer people the Russian army will be able to kill,” the president said in a speech.
Charles Miller, working at the Australian National University, sees several possible interpretations as to why the announcement is coming now.
— It’s quite a big deal, because we’re talking about 250,000–300,000 people who are in the Ukrainian-controlled part of Donetsk Oblast, he says.
Weak defense?
One explanation could be that Zelenskyj and his staff consider that the defense is too weak, and will be overrun by the Russian forces. In that case, it runs counter to what the analysts at the think tank ISW believe, as well as the US defense headquarters, the Pentagon, which assesses that the Russian invasion has stopped.
— There is a possibility that they are wrong, which the Ukrainians have realized, and therefore ordered the evacuation, says Miller.
Another reason could be that Ukraine considers that civilians may end up in the firing line.
— Even if the area where they live may not be at risk of being occupied, they may still be at risk of Russian artillery and bombardment.
A third possible interpretation is that Ukraine now assesses the risk of civilians falling under Russian control as much greater, since the prison with prisoners of war was attacked last week, and a clip was circulated that allegedly shows a Ukrainian prisoner of war being castrated by Russian soldiers.
“It could be that the danger to civilians has been overestimated in terms of what happens if you are occupied,” says Miller.
Preparing a counteroffensive?
TT: Could it also be that Ukraine wants to empty the area before a counter-offensive?
— Yes, it is possible, but we must bear in mind that Zelensky ordered the evacuation of areas under Ukrainian control, where one should not expect heavy fighting in the event of a counteroffensive.
The president stated on Sunday that the Russian army is trying to strengthen its positions in the occupied areas in the southern part of the country and is increasing activity there.
— I believe that the information is correct. It is quite difficult for Russia to hide its movements without being detected, given satellite surveillance and the like. It may be that they are trying to make an advance, or to defend themselves against a possible Ukrainian counterattack. The latter is more likely.
The war changes phase
Charles Miller says that the war changed phase as Ukraine received medium-range artillery from the United States in the form of the Himars rocket artillery systems.
— It restores the balance in terms of how far you can reach, where Ukraine had a disadvantage. Russia’s offensive in the east has been based on heavy artillery bombardment along with thrusting advances. It relied on the Russian artillery reaching further, allowing them to bombard the Ukrainians without them being able to do anything about it.
American rocket artillery of the Himars type is fired during an exercise in Washington.
Since gaining access to Himars, Ukraine has managed to target logistics hubs and ammunition depots.
— That makes it less likely that Russia can make any major advances, if nothing changes. But that does not necessarily mean that Ukraine can go on the counteroffensive and take back territory, says Miller.
One reason for that is that completely different abilities are needed to defend compared to attacking.
— First of all, they must coordinate their forces in a way that is difficult for all military powers. They have also lost some of their best strengths. So I’m a little skeptical that the Ukrainian forces will succeed in regaining territory, without massive help from the West.