Who hasn’t already seen its yellow and red fuselage rush towards a massive fire? Or heard, in the distance, the characteristic noise of its twin engine? Certainly, the mythical Canadair spins more in the southern part of the country, more exposed to fires. But, with climate change, the perimeter of risk is widening: it is not uncommon to see it further north, as in Brittany last year.
Faced with the multiplication of ever more intense forest fires, the overuse of these aging water bombers “is a factor of concern”, according to a Senate information report filed in early July. Especially since the French fleet is limited: civil security has 12 copies of the essential Canadian aircraft (CL-415), as well as 8 Dash and 3 Beechcraft. Emmanuel Macron, last October, announced the complete renewal and extension of the number of Canadair to 16 units. Other European countries – but not only – are working to expand and rejuvenate their fleet, for lack of better anticipating the problem. Result: the market, however limited, of the water bomber knows a burst.
Business is therefore picking up again for De Havilland Aircraft of Canada (DHC), the latest purchaser of the Canadair program. First developed and produced by the eponymous company, which put the first version of the aircraft (the CL-215) into service in 1969, the tanker then passed into the hands of Bombardier and then Viking Air, became de Havilland. If the first stopped the manufacture of Canadair in 2015, for lack of sufficient orders, the second did not relaunch it for the same reason, while a modernized version was under study. “This is one of those cases where the short-sightedness of the financiers led to a monumental failure. Neither the government nor the company saw the goose that lay the golden eggs,” criticizes Mehran Ebrahimi, director of the International Observatory of Aeronautics and Civil Aviation of the University of Quebec in Montreal, recalling that the links between global warming and the resurgence of fires were widely proven.
“Monopoly situation”
Everything unlocks in March 2022, a few months before a hellish summer. The order book of De Havilland, which relocated its factory from Quebec to Alberta, finally exceeds the minimum threshold set to restart production: in addition to Indonesian demand for 8 aircraft, there is an intention to purchase 22 new Canadairs. version (the DHC-515) by the European Union. Ambition confirmed, and raised, this summer by Janez Lenarčič. The European Commissioner for Crisis Management hopes to sign a first contract this year for 12 aircraft, via the RescEU system – a continental reserve fleet –, followed by another for as many aircraft. These would reinforce the parks of six countries, including France, but would be financed by national funds.
“Significant upgrades have been made to increase the functionality and effectiveness of this legendary rugged firefighting aircraft,” assured the manufacturer last year, which anticipates the arrival of the first Canadair before the 2027 fire season. A bold timing that the Senate information report doubts. But what alternative in the short term? None. “The monopoly situation enjoyed by DHC on the water bomber market places France and its European partners in a situation of dependence vis-à-vis this manufacturer to renew their fleet”, indicates this report.
“There are currently no aircraft that can compete with the Canadair, confirms Mehran Ebrahimi. However, the world fleet is totally insufficient, which makes it a very favorable market.” Question of sovereignty, some would welcome the entry of new players into the landscape. In its mission on the modernization of civil security and protection against major risks handed over to Emmanuel Macron in June, the ex-minister and former mayor of Toulon Hubert Falco invites to “seek alternative solutions to Canadair and promote the development of a French or European sector of water bombers”.
Two programs have emerged, even if they remain embryonic. The Belgian start-up Roadfour, created by three engineers and architects, has been carrying out its Seagle project since 2018, which could take nearly 12 tonnes of water – twice as much as the Canadair. The company communicated in March on the design of its hull and confirmed its ambition to deliver its amphibious aircraft “by 2030”. Another young actor, French him, came out of the woods this summer: the company Hynaero, based in Bordeaux and partly composed of former collaborators of Roadfour, and its Fregate-F100 program.
The Canadair, “an aging and limited reference”
On a global market estimated at 300 devices at least, “the current offer is unsuitable”, notes David Pincet, co-founder of the Bordeaux start-up. This aviation and security expert, who worked for the Air Force, NATO and the Directorate General for Civil Security, where he oversaw the tricolor water bombers, believes that “the Canadair is a reference, but aging – 27-28 years of average age in France – and which has shown its limits on large fires.Will operators buy, in 2030, an aircraft built on the bases of fifty years ago? or a modern airplane?” he asks.
In his eyes, the Fregate-F100 obviously falls into the second category. It will be able to scoop up to 10 tonnes of water and will be designed to use “the vast majority of water bodies operated by Canadair”, specifies David Pincet. It also promises a “more precise and less tiring” piloting for this seaplane which, on paper, copies the appearance of the Canadair, with however a more elongated fuselage. Its schedule foresees a first flying prototype in 2028-2029 and a market launch one or two years later. Investment cost over eight years: 800 million euros. Price of a device: around 70 million euros. Only a few million more than for a DHC-515, whose price would fluctuate between 60 and 64 million, according to the Senate information report. An amount far removed from the list price of this device, reported by The world last year: about 35 million dollars, or 32 million euros. The Canadair CL-415s, acquired by France more than a quarter of a century ago, cost 25 million euros each…
“From a sales model of 60 to 70 aircraft, the program would be profitable,” said David Pincet, looking for funding and industrial partnerships. Hynaero’s Fregate-F100 project, like that of Belgian Seagle, “is technically possible, analyzes Mehran Ebrahimi. But the barrier to entry is very high: it is long and requires a lot of money. It is easier to ramp up the production rate than to start from scratch”. The successor to the Canadair is not yet approaching.