Researcher at the Henry Kissinger Center and professor at Johns Hopkins University (Washington), Sergey Radchenko, born in the Soviet Union, is a specialist in the Cold War. The historian is notably one of the best experts on coups d’etat in the Kremlin.
For The Express, the academic analyzes the motivations and consequences of Yevgueni Prigojine’s incredible attempt at rebellion. According to him, the episode further undermined the authority of Vladimir Putin. It remains to be seen whether the regime will continue its decline, until it collapses, as the precedents of 1991 or 1917 suggest, or whether Putin will opt for a “Kirov scenario” and launch a Stalinist repression in order to strengthen its internal power. As for Prigojine, Sergey Radchenko attributes a “very limited life expectancy” to him if the former hot dog seller finds himself without military resources in Belarus…
L’Express: According to you, the end of the mad rebellion of Prigojine represents a Pyrrhic victory. For what ?
Sergei Radchenko: From the start, I thought that the challenge posed by Prigozhin to Putin was extraordinary. At the time, it was said that Putin was just playing one faction against the other, as he likes to do. But I didn’t believe it. Prigozhin had attacked a “dumb grandfather”, which could be seen as a reference to Putin himself. How could he tolerate this? Failure to act only undermined his authority, and made him look like a paper tiger. Prigozhin thus went further and further. The Defense Ministry’s attempt to bring Wagner back into its chain of command, with a July 1 ultimatum to sign a contract to regularize the fighters’ legal status, prompted Prigozhin to act quickly, while he still had the Wagner’s control. It was a gamble on his part. He probably didn’t expect Putin to react so strongly.
But whatever the nature of the deal with Prigozhin, Putin’s authority has been further eroded. Today it is weaker. People wonder how such an armed rebellion, on Russian territory, could have happened right under Putin’s nose? It seems absurd.
Now Putin has two options. Either he takes repressive measures to strengthen his internal authority, questioned not only by Prigojine, but also by the military setbacks in Ukraine. This means that the regime really turns into Stalinism. But I don’t know if Putin has the ability to do that. The other possibility is that Putin’s loss of power will continue, until things fall apart…
What does the history of failed coups in Russia teach us?
The military and KGB coup attempt against Mikhail Gorbachev in 1991 lasted only three days, but this failure quickly led to the collapse of the Soviet Union. Similarly, in August 1917, the commander-in-chief of the Russian army, Lavr Kornilov, attempted to march on Saint Petersburg (then the capital of Russia), supposedly to subdue the Bolsheviks and reimpose control of the government. His attempted military coup failed, but it contributed to the chaos that brought the Bolsheviks to power in November. A brutal civil war ensued that cost Russia millions of lives. Putin mentioned the 1917 precedent in his address to the Russian people. It is clear that he too is aware of the dangerous parallels.
Why did Prigozhin turn around so quickly?
Prigozhin thought he had an opportunity because of the mobilization of Russian armed forces on the Ukrainian front. He also believed that his views against Defense Minister Shoigu and Gerasimov’s military staff were divided within the Russian military, which is no doubt true. Many soldiers make the same diagnosis of the state of corruption and incompetence in the army. But it would seem that Prigozhin had no very specific objectives in launching his march on Moscow. Once he faced resistance from state forces, and a very tough speech from Putin, he backed down.
But all of this is just speculation, as we don’t know the content of the deal he made. If he goes to Belarus and Wagner ends up disbanded and drafted into the regular army, then Prigozhin’s life expectancy is very limited. In this case, it is finished. On the other hand, if he manages to keep control over Wagner, then it’s a very different situation. But we won’t know for a few days.
“Betraying Putin is a death sentence”
What do you think of Belarusian President Lukashenko’s role in resolving this crisis?
Lukashenko never misses an opportunity to promote himself. It is unclear who was actually involved in this negotiation. But for Putin, it is a great humiliation to see the Belarusian president playing the emissary. For the moment, all that remains unclear. But there is only one certainty: if Prigojine thinks that by abandoning Wagner he will have personal guarantees of safety in Belarus, then he is a complete idiot. But as we know this is not the case, there are many gray areas in this story.
Putin values loyalty above all else. He doesn’t care about the homeland, he only cares about himself. Betraying Putin is tantamount to a death sentence. We have seen it many times in recent history, from Litvinenko to Skripal. He relentlessly pursues people he thinks have betrayed him. On the other hand, he surrounds himself with incompetent but loyal people, like Shoigu. But Prigozhin has openly positioned himself as an enemy of Putin. How can he survive this? If he abandoned Wagner, he’s dead. This is why the future of this military group is the key to everything.
You say that Russia could experience a “Kirov scenario”, named after the Soviet leader whose murder served as a pretext for the great Stalinist purges…
Sergei Kirov was killed in 1934 in Leningrad, probably on Stalin’s orders. The latter used this opportunity to trigger repression, explaining that the Soviet Union finds itself under threat from internal and external enemies. In the same way, Putin could use the Prigozhin episode to really carry out a policy of terror. Russia is already a horrible country in many ways, with political opponents, like Navalny, Kara-Murza or Yashin, languishing in prison. But we are still far from Stalinism. There is still space for an ordinary life in Russia. People are not afraid that their doors can be broken down at night in order to deport them. Potentially, Putin could therefore turn to Stalinist repression. But we don’t know if he has the means, or even the personal inclinations. He could have done it a few years ago. Russia could have become North Korea. But this is not the case, even if the political situation has worsened.
Putin could also use this episode to announce total mobilization, explaining that the country is in danger, as in 1917. Anything is possible. But if Putin does not react, the Russians will ask themselves more and more questions. Is he still in control of the situation? Is he still able to maintain his authority? Today, all this is very uncertain.
How do you think this episode will serve Ukrainian interests?
This is of course great for Ukraine. Anything that serves to demoralize Russian troops and anything that shows Putin’s weakness is a good thing for them. But the consequences of this rebellion should not be overestimated. For now, there does not seem to be any major impact on Russian positions in Ukraine. We have not witnessed massive defections. For now, let’s not get too excited.