Since May 26, northern Kosovo has experienced a rise in tensions with Serbia unprecedented since its independence in 2008. On Monday, thirty soldiers from Kfor, the mediation force sent by NATO, which is very present in the country, were sometimes seriously injured during clashes with Serb demonstrators in four Serb-majority municipalities located in the north of the country, and at the heart of the disagreement between the two countries. Tefta Kelmendi, expert of the European Council for Foreign Affairs in the “Wider Europe” program and former Kosovar diplomat in France, deciphers the roots of the geopolitical tensions which led to the current conflict, and explores the ways out of potential crises.
L’Express: When did the conflict between Kosovo and Serbia begin?
Tefta Kelmendi: It dates back to Kosovo’s independence in 2008, which Serbia has never really acknowledged. After several years without communication, the dialogue between the two countries resumed in 2011, first to resolve technical issues: the recognition of civil status documents, diplomas, but also issues related to border management, telecommunications or energy.
Gradually, a political dialogue between the leaders of the two countries begins, to materialize in 2013. The sensitive issue is located in the north of Kosovo, and particularly in four municipalities with a Serb majority still very close to Serbia, and which claim a status “autonomous” of Kosovo. When proclaiming its independence, Kosovo had promised in its Constitution that it would guarantee equality between the different ethnic groups, in particular Serbs and Albanians, by setting up quotas for representatives in local and national public institutions.
In 2013, the leaders reached an agreement which would allow, among other things, the Serbs of Kosovo to integrate the institutions, but also a kind of “autonomy” for these four municipalities with a Serb majority. Part of this agreement thus allows them to be governed by Serbian mayors, and to create an association of municipalities with a Serbian majority capable of taking certain executive decisions on this area. But fairly quickly, the Kosovar Constitutional Court rejected this agreement, with the argument that Kosovo being constitutionally a multi-ethnic country, there can be no mono-ethnic executive power. For ten years, this question of the autonomy of the north of the country remains unresolved, and the most problematic in the dialogue between the two countries.
How to explain the fever outbreak in recent days?
Last year, Serb representatives from the north of the country resigned from all institutions as a force in protest against the government’s inability to resolve the issue of association of Serb-majority municipalities in Kosovo. The central government then organized local elections, immediately boycotted by the Serbs: the participation rate was around 3% of the population. Albanian mayors were then elected for the first time in the region since independence. Kosovar Prime Minister Albin Kurti asked them to take up their duties, despite warnings from the Western international community and in particular from Europe, which denounced the unmet security conditions.
This resulted in violent protests on the part of the Serbian population, in which the criminal groups from the north also took part, leading to the clashes that we observe today. The protests continued on Wednesday, and it appears protesters have no intention of stopping until their demand for some form of autonomy is acknowledged.
This is the most serious and violent situation that Kosovo has known since the end of the war in 1999. Aleksandar Vučić’s request to his army to move towards the border is very worrying, it is a provocation and a way of intimidating. Will he attack? This would be very unlikely, since it is impossible for him to face the NATO forces present in northern Kosovo. It would be a strategic mistake, since its future lies in the Europe it would like to integrate.
What has the arrival of President Aleksandar Vučić changed in Serbia?
The situation worsened with the coming to power of the very nationalist Aleksandar Vučić in Serbia. It leads a destabilizing policy by supporting in particular the structures parallel to the official institutions in the north of Kosovo.
After a few years, despite the absence of an official agreement, the Kosovo Serbs had integrated rather well in the north of the country. The Serbian police and representatives, for example, had agreed to wear the Kosovar uniform, which is an important symbol. He encouraged them to refuse this integration, to keep their Serbian papers. Subsidies are still distributed in northern Kosovo by Serbia, to associations that are not official in the country. There are even suspicions of support for organized crime associations from Serbia. Anyway, organized crime is highly developed in the north, since there is a lack of security and the rule of law in this part of the territory.
There has been general resentment in the Balkans towards Serbia since Vučić’s arrival, which has reignited tensions and created a climate of insecurity, particularly in Kosovo and neighboring Bosnia, where the situation is also unstable.
On Monday May 19, Russia urged the West to end its “false propaganda” regarding Kosovo and to “respect the rights of Serbs”. What is Russia’s influence in the region?
Historically, Serbia is linked with Russia through cooperation in many fields, and is considered Serbia’s historical ally, and has always defended its values and interests. Since Serbia is approaching the European Union with a view to integrating it, their relationship is a little more complicated. But it is still strong: after having met the representatives of the European Union on Tuesday May 30, Aleksandar Vučić met the Russian representatives. He always plays between the two parties.
Russia has everything to gain from this conflict. The Balkans represent an important investment for the European Union, which would like – even more so since the war in Ukraine – to settle regional conflicts and eventually integrate them into the Union. Any destabilization is favorable to Russian strategy in the context of the war in Ukraine.
What are the possible consequences of this conflict?
The more the violence intensifies, the more difficult it will be to find a way out and to conduct the necessary negotiations around the status of the northern region. What Aleksandar Vučić wants is a Serb-controlled entity in Kosovo, a kind of extension of the Serbian Republic in the country. He voluntarily aggravates the tensions with Kosovo, because that allows him to benefit from a major advantage in the negotiations: he shows that Kosovo will never know stability in the north of the country if he does not agree to cede a share of autonomy to the municipalities of the north.
On top of that, the international community is cracking down on the events of the past few days. The United States, which has supported Kosovo and the dialogue between the two countries for a very long time, threatened on Wednesday May 31 to freeze lobbying efforts in favor of the recognition of Kosovo. The Kosovar government is now reaching the point where it will have to make concessions to get out of the political crisis.