Will September be as beautiful as last year? After a summer that fluctuated between good weather and bad weather, we already know what to expect in the coming weeks…
While the first week of September promises to be bright across much of the country, with temperatures close to those experienced in August, summer could well encroach on the beginning of autumn. For this back-to-school month, The Weather Channel currently predicts the arrival of a “generally drier and milder than average” trend and “temperatures close to statistical norms”.
However, we should not expect a September similar to last year’s. As a reminder, September 2023 is considered the hottest September ever recorded, exceeding the previous record of 1949 by 1°C. In several places, the 30°C mark had been crossed and many departments had been placed on heatwave alert. In the northern half, the heat episode had even given rise to higher temperatures than in summer.
This year, a somewhat different scenario is being prepared. Although the first days of September are looking very promising, there is no way of saying whether the sun will shine over France for too long. The first forecasts indicate the arrival of instability from the end of the first half of September. It could be characterised by regular thunderstorms and the return of a cold drop phenomenon.
The second half of September should nevertheless go in the same direction as the first: a stormy trend punctuated by heavy rains would be possible, particularly around the Mediterranean basin. “We will then have to monitor the south. […] A stormy trend could begin to develop in these regions, with risks of heavy rains,” writes The Weather Channel. While on the contrary the northern half of the country could experience rather calm and dry weather.
However, the reliability of the forecasts is still limited and other weather models indicate that the continuation of anticyclonic weather with temperatures still high for the season is very possible. The arrival of autumn is also expected to be warmer. Here again, the first forecasts indicate the continuation of dry and sunny weather that would remain mild in October. Meteorologists are not, for the moment, mentioning the return of rainy activity, although stormy episodes in the south of the country should be taken into account.
“This type of weather could predominate for the autumn, or even during the winter according to very long-term models. This would be synonymous with sunny, dry and mild weather, that is to say a ‘beautiful late season’. There is also no particular signal concerning Cévennes-type rain activity in the south of France despite undoubtedly more present instability expected on the reliefs of the hinterlands”, thus writes The Weather Channel.
These initial estimates are reminiscent of those for October last year, which was initially marked by a quasi-summery first fortnight but was then overtaken by a significant deterioration.