In a split second, he tipped over to the right side of history. From a potential autocrat, Macky Sall has become a “democrat” in a West Africa plagued by instability and coups d’etat. This Monday, July 3, the Senegalese president buried the stick of dynamite he had between his fingers and gave up running for one too many terms. Let him announce a candidacy for a third term and chaos was written. Supporters of his No. 1 opponent, Ousmane Sonko – rendered ineligible for the 2024 presidential election after his two-year prison sentence – were ready to fight, white-hot by their leader.
Riveted to their television screen this Monday evening, the Senegalese pushed a big “phew” of relief. “He comes out the front door after a great speech,” wrote on Twitter Alioune Tine, one of the head of state’s most fervent critics in recent months, founder of the Afrikajom think tank.
A democracy on the brink
What suspense, and at what price! Never has Senegal experienced such an explosive political climate. Since March 2021, demonstrations in favor of opponent Ousmane Sonko have claimed the lives of at least thirty people; several civil society organizations denounce a decline in freedoms and deplore the imprisonment, during Macky Sall’s two terms, of most of his rivals. Senegal has lost 24 places in the latest Reporters Without Borders ranking on press freedom. Young people no longer believe in their institutions, considered biased by many. A democracy on the brink…
And at the top of the state, a president who, for months, cultivated doubt about his future. In an interview with L’Express last March, he did not rule out running for a third term, against the spirit of the Constitution which stipulates that “no one may exercise more than two consecutive terms”. “Legally, the debate is settled”, he assured, arguing that the passage from the seven-year term to the five-year term, in 2016, had reset the counters to zero. Asked about his 2019 commitment, written black on white in his autobiography, not to exceed two terms, Macky Sall wavered: “I gave an opinion that corresponded to my conviction at the time. This can change and circumstances can get me to change my position.” On the evening of July 3, everything miraculously cleared up: “I have a code of honor and a sense of responsibility which commands me to preserve my dignity and my word”, declared the president.
As “responsible” as this renunciation is, isn’t it irresponsible to have waited so long to say it? How can such an expectation be justified? Macky Sall told anyone who would listen that revealing himself too soon would demobilize his teams. But the reasons probably lie elsewhere. “Before deciding, Macky Sall waited for the court’s decision on Ousmane Sonko. This last offside, the president preferred to give up to remain in history as a democrat”, comments a political scientist in Dakar. In the meantime, the president has taken care of his international stature. At the presidency of the African Union in 2022, he pleads in favor of the acquisition of vaccines against Covid-19, a moratorium on African debts, and promotes his “360 degree diplomacy” by speaking in Moscow and in Kyiv. Behind the scenes, it is rumored that the Head of State is toying with the idea of an international career, for example at the General Secretariat of the UN… Did he obtain any guarantee before giving up a third term? History does not say it yet.
An uncertain presidential 2024
Still, his decision, announced late, plunges the country into uncertainty, seven months before the February 2024 presidential election. What will happen to Sonko, under house arrest after his conviction? Adored by young people, the populist opponent has not said his last word. His arrest and detention could inflame the country.
What other personality could convince a majority of Senegalese voters? The former mayor of Dakar, Khalifa Sall, also convicted – for financial embezzlement – and rendered ineligible in 2019, before being pardoned by the president the day after the election? Former Prime Minister Idrissa Seck, who came second in the 2019 presidential election and “returned to the ranks” a year later when Macky Sall appointed him president of the Economic, Social and Environmental Council? Unless the current Prime Minister Amadou Ba comes out of the woods… The match is more open than ever.
“A President of the Republic who will organize, without participating, the election of his successor, it will be a first in our common history”, applauds the star singer Youssou Ndour. Macky Sall’s ultimate test to “exit through the front door”.