The Luxembourg Palace often remains opaque to the major electoral upheavals produced in the National Assembly. Proof of this is that, except between 2011 and 2014, the upper house has evolved under right-wing domination since the advent of the Fifth Republic. Sunday September 24, the date of the next election where half of the Senate seats will be up for grabs, the parliamentary balances should not change too much. At least that’s what we say, on both sides of the Hemicycle, where each staff took out the calculator and made their projections according to the results of the 2020 municipal elections – most of the 78,000 electors are municipal councilors. Despite everything, the 1,819 candidates from all sides, including 119 outgoing senators, crisscross their department, to seduce these king-making mayors, regional or departmental councilors. “We are like the group Stars 80: we wander from city to city,” musically summarizes Hervé Marseille, the UDI president of the Centrist Union. An essential pilgrimage, because the underwater challenges are numerous.
The serenity of the right exasperates internally
The Republicans, with a majority in the Senate and with their 145 elected representatives, want to believe in the perpetuation of traditions. “Our configurations should remain similar, except for four or five senators,” believes René-Paul Savary, elected LR of Marne. The formation, which is replaying 45 seats, should retain its key positions, such as the presidency of the Luxembourg Palace, currently occupied by Gérard Larcher who will seek a fifth term in the wake of the election, as well as one of the three quaesturas that occupies the right-wing senator Philippe Bas. A necessary result to allow the LR to continue to weigh on the executive, without an absolute majority at the Palais Bourbon.
“I am much more cautious in my analyses, nuance, exasperation, Roger Karoutchi, senator from Hauts-de-Seine and vice-president of the Senate. In 2011, we thought we would win with a lead of around ten seats, but the divisions made us have pushed back,” he whispers. Because there are some divisions. In Paris, in Essonne or Oise for example, where the right has three lists. In the North, it includes five. Currently, the Republicans can count on their allies in the Centrist Union (57 senators) to have an absolute majority. Nevertheless, we will closely monitor the possible rise in power of MoDem and Horizons, allies of Macronia, which could extend their influence. “Officially, there is a senatorial majority made up of the LR and the Centrist Union. But we know very well that among the latter, some have a foot in the presidential majority. Their progress could call into question a lot of things”, continues Roger Karoutchi. Hervé Marseille tempers: “It’s the magic of the Senate! We can be in the senatorial majority, and close to the government.”
The disadvantaged presidential majority, a decisive vote for Philippe
For the Rally of Democrats, Progressives and Independents (RDPI), chaired by Emmanuel Macron loyalist François Patriat, the task promises to be more difficult. This September 24, the group will renew half of its seats in the Senate, i.e. 12 out of 24. If its existence is, for the moment, still not threatened (ten senators are enough to create a group), Macronie, half-heartedly, already anticipates failure. “We are not going to tell stories, Renaissance will not emerge as a big winner from these senatorial elections,” admits Loïc Signor, spokesperson for the party. Because bad results in local elections, in this case the municipal elections of 2020 and the regional elections of 2021, rarely deceive. And some outgoing candidates – defectors from the Socialist Party – have lost the support of voters in their left-wing territories. Especially since the vote could take on the appearance of a sanction vote: certain elected officials have still not digested the abolition of the housing tax or the “zero net artificialization” (ZAN) objective. Patriat, which nevertheless calls itself “combative”, hopes to see the four incumbents who are representing themselves re-elected. The group should, in any case, lose a few elected officials, between two and six, according to forecasts.
But Emmanuel Macron’s support could, paradoxically, be more numerous in the Senate after Sunday’s vote. Thanks to Horizons, the party of Edouard Philippe, which will be able to count in particular on the town halls of Reims and Angers to swell the ranks of the Independents, Liberties and Territories group of Claude Malhuret (14 elected officials), already including half a dozen Philippists. The objective is barely veiled and the elements of language are all found: “The goal is, for the moment, not to create a Horizons group, but to allow Edouard Philippe to continue to weave his web” with a view to 2027 , we confide in those around us.
LFI rejected by the left, the RN in ambush
On the left, socialists, communists and ecologists – 64, 12 and 14 seats respectively – leave united in around fifteen departments, with the hope of reaching the symbolic bar of one hundred senators. While the first two groups plan to maintain their position (the communists are still returning three quarters of their elected representatives!), the Greens should progress, by virtue of their good performance in the 2020 municipal elections. France insoumise, for its part, was excluded of the agreement formulated by the three groups, due to lack of local anchoring. “Mélenchon’s positions are scaring away major voters,” explains Patrick Kanner, boss of elected socialists. “Strategically, it was not a win-win agreement.” An “absurd” position, for MP Paul Vannier, in charge of elections for LFI. “We must deepen the Nupes! And we only asked for the entry of one senator.” The Insoumis therefore presented lists in all the departments – without much hope – even if it meant dispersing the left-wing vote in certain departments.
The National Rally could well hope to make its return to the Luxembourg Palace. The far-right group has been absent since the joining of senator Stéphane Ravier (Bouches-du-Rhône) to Reconquête, Eric Zemmour’s party. “We are among the only ones to have nothing to lose: what does it matter if we come in with just one, two or three, it would be a success anyway,” puts Sébastien Chenu, spokesperson for the party, into perspective. The RN presented lists in all departments, except in Paris, Lot and Lozère, due to a lack of electors.
Two territories will, among others, be closely scrutinized by lepenists. The North, first, where Joshua Hochart could take advantage of the divisions of the right to do well in the game. Pas-de-Calais, then, department in which Christopher Szczurek could be designated by the electors of the RN cities of Hénin-Beaumont and Bruay-la-Buyssière.