The experts that DW spoke with regarding the crisis between Russia and Western countries over the east of Ukraine believe that Russia’s threat to invade Ukraine should be taken seriously.
Gustav Gressel, from the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), said the situation looks “pretty serious” given Russia’s preparations on the Ukrainian border. Noting that Russia’s threats to Ukraine are “quite stable”, Gressel said, “Demands have been expressed and the willingness to use military force has been consistently expressed by (Russian President Vladimir) Putin and (Russian Foreign Minister Sergey) Lavrov, using the same expressions over the past three months. “I think we need to take it seriously,” he said.
Ekkehard Brose, head of the German Security Policy Academy, a think tank affiliated with the German government, also thinks that the possibility of Russia launching an attack on Ukraine should be taken seriously. “I think we need to take this threat seriously. How likely it is, only Putin will probably know. And Putin always surprises us,” Brose told DW. Underlining that the preparations continue in the region, Brose said that it is necessary to act on the assumption that these preparations have a meaning. “So let’s take this seriously, but on the other hand, we also follow the method of diplomacy and negotiation,” said Brose.
economic sanctions
Evaluating whether the diplomatic initiatives carried out to reduce the tension between the parties on the Ukraine issue will yield results, Gressel said that this depends on how seriously Russia took the sanctions threats put forward by Western countries, including Germany. “It depends on whether Russia thinks a war will cause more problems than it will bring to it,” Gressel said.
Stating that economic sanctions could harm Putin’s vision of creating a strong Russia, Gressel said, “You can only scare Putin if you impose sanctions that will disrupt Russia’s plan to be strong and survive as it wishes in the 21st century.”
“US response gives little room for optimism”
On the other hand, diplomatic contacts continue to reduce tensions. Russia responded to the US response to Moscow’s security requests. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitri Peskov said the US response allowed “little room for optimism”, but that “there is always a possibility to continue the dialogue” and it would be in the interest of both Russia and the United States. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also stated that the US response has some elements “for the start of serious talks on secondary issues”, but that “there is no positive response on the main issue” in the document.
Russia’s demands, which Lavrov referred to as “the main issue”, include assurance that no former Soviet country, including Ukraine, will be admitted to NATO, and a commitment that NATO will withdraw its military forces deployed in Eastern Europe. In its written response to these demands, the USA stated that NATO’s door was open to Ukraine and rejected one of Russia’s most basic demands.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in a statement after the response, stated that the answer they gave in the letter they sent to Moscow offered Russia a “serious diplomatic way” to resolve the issue. Now all eyes are on Russian President Putin’s decision.
Turkey’s call to “lower blood pressure”
Turkey also made a statement on the Ukraine crisis. In the statement published after the National Security Council (NSC) meeting chaired by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the parties were called to reduce tensions.
The statement said, “The increasing tension between the Russian Federation and Ukraine has been discussed, and it has been pointed out that the escalation of tension will not result in the interests of anyone, and all parties have been called to reduce the tension with common sense.”
Statement from Germany
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock also stated that Germany “always favors dialogue”, but that if Russia attacks Ukraine, it will face a very harsh response. Speaking at the session of the Bundestag on the Ukraine crisis, Baerbock said, “In a possible new attack, we have a wide range of different response options, including Nord Stream 2”.
Russia’s deployment of up to 100,000 troops on the Ukrainian border has led to an escalation of tensions between Russia and the Western Alliance, raising concerns between the United States and NATO allies that Russia will invade Ukraine.
DW,AP / DCU,HS
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