Using complex climate models, the researchers have studied how heat and salt water move in the Atlantic, in a system that includes, among other things, the Gulf Stream, which contributes to the relatively mild climate in Scandinavia.
20 degrees colder in Sweden in winter
The influx of fresh water from melting ice in Greenland and the Arctic causes the currents to decrease in strength. In the computer models, the researchers saw “early warning signs” that the development continues to the point where a “tipping point” is reached, a breaking point where the system of currents collapses completely.
The study’s lead author, the researcher at Utrecht University, René van Westen, tells SVT that a “tipping point” could have major consequences for northern Europe.
– Some of the changes are quick and dramatic. In Sweden, for example, we see temperatures falling by up to 20 degrees within a century, he says.
According to the model, the average temperature in Sweden drops by ten degrees. In addition, the Swedish west coast, among other things, can count on a sea level rise of up to one meter.
The study is groundbreaking because it analyzes data from the atmosphere, ocean and land. Among other things, the researchers have studied the salinity in the southern Atlantic. According to René van Westen, most current climate models underestimate the risk of “tipping point” events.
– They are too static and the risk of a “tipping point” is probably higher, he says.
Don’t know when but within a hundred years
However, the study does not provide an answer as to when the collapse may occur. But the models show that it will likely occur within a hundred years.
– It will seriously disrupt the Earth’s current climate and we must stay far away from this – because the impact will be devastating, says René van Westen.