Even in Germany, it is not known why Scholz is putting the brakes on sending battle tanks to Ukraine. The discussion is mainly speculation, writes Europe correspondent Suvi Turtiainen.
Suvi Turtiainen
BERLIN Sending Leopard main battle tanks to Ukraine became a step more concrete on Monday, when Poland announced that it would apply for an export permit from Germany to export them.
Due to arms export agreements, the approval of the manufacturer Germany is required for the export of Leopards to Ukraine. Prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki said that Poland was ready to advance even without German permission if necessary.
Poland’s application increases the pressure on Germany not only to allow Leopards to be sent, but also to decide whether it is ready to send its own Leopards to a country at war.
The pursuit of Germany has been talking about Europe for weeks, but the discussion about the reasons has mostly been speculation. It is due to the Chancellor From Olaf Scholz, who refuses to open his views or justify the reasons for chasing Germany. The decision to send the Leopards rests with the Chancellor.
At the last press conference held in Paris yesterday, Sunday, Scholz dodged a direct question about the matter. Even in Germany’s public debate, his reasoning for why Germany does not send battle tanks to Ukraine or why it is at least slow with the decision is not known.
Chasing is eating away at relations with the United States and European allies. Other countries need leadership from Germany, which Scholz is clearly not ready for.
The clearest vision from the Chancellor was received in April In an interview with Der Spiegel magazine (you will switch to another service), in which Scholz warned of the threat of nuclear war and the expansion of the war in Ukraine between NATO and Russia. Even today, the German press has to refer to comments that are months old, because no single clear answer has been received since then.
The general interpretation is still that Scholz is afraid of a Russian backlash and therefore refuses to send powerful Western Leopard 2 main battle tanks.
Germany has already sent other heavy weapons to Ukraine. It is a mystery why Scholz draws the line precisely at battle tanks.
Scholz has repeated that he wants to act in line with allies, which has been interpreted to mean above all the United States.
It doesn’t clarify the situation, that there will be semi-certain declarations from the ranks of the German coalition government. Foreign Minister representing the Greens Annalena Baerbock said on Sunday that Germany is not an obstacle if other countries want to export German-made Leopards to Ukraine. It is unclear whether Scholz agrees.
Although it has not been possible to ask about Scholz’s Leopard stock, the opinion of the German people is better known. Flickering too. Fresh opinion survey (you will switch to another service) according to 47 percent of Germans support sending Leopards to Ukraine, 43 percent are against it.
Germany’s own Nazi past still influences thinking about sending heavy weapons. The idea of armed aid brings echoes from when Germany was an aggressive aggressor state in Europe.
In Poland, the Baltic countries and Finland too, there is a strong idea that only an adequate defense capability can bring peace. In Germany, on the other hand, it is common to think that increasing armaments and arms aid can lead to a prolongation of the war.
However, the thinking of Germans is changing and the majority supports supporting Ukraine. The brake on the Leopard decision is above all Chancellor Scholz.
Poland’s application forces Scholz’s foot off the brake. At the same time, Poland’s application increases the pressure on Finland as well.
In the European discussion, Finland has been lumped together with Poland as countries that are ready to send Leopards to Ukraine and that are waiting for Germany’s policy on the matter.
The Polish leadership is already talking about a smaller European coalition to send tanks if Germany cannot be included. Would Finland be ready for the same?
The pressure on Finland’s own national decision is increasing.