All day, Mohammed bin Salman had wandered alone in the corridors of the Buenos Aires convention center on November 30, 2018. In the group photo of G20 leaders, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia barely fit into the frame , relegated to the left. A month after the assassination of the Saudi opponent Jamal Khashoggi, cut with a chainsaw in an Istanbul consulate, MBS seemed radioactive for the greats of this world. With one exception.
In a huge burst of laughter, in the midst of amazed heads of state, Vladimir Putin had offered MBS a high five unforgettable and a sincere hug. Russia stood by the crown prince, including in a moment of total isolation. A little more than three years later, in the midst of the invasion of Ukraine, the Russian president finds himself in the role of the radioactive leader, and the crown prince of Saudi Arabia proves that he has a memory.
From the start of the war, Westerners turned to Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil producer, to stop the surge in hydrocarbon prices by increasing its supply. While London had been avoiding MBS for three years, Boris Johnson flew to Riyadh on March 15 to “obtain energy guarantees” from the Saudi prince. The British Prime Minister left empty-handed and with his head bowed.
Joe Biden, who had called MBS a “pariah” during his presidential campaign and refused to speak to him, tried several times to get the crown prince on the phone. According to the American press, the Saudis refused to pick up. “We are witnessing an amazing, almost incredible moment, underlines David Ottaway, specialist in the Gulf at the Wilson Center, in Washington. I have covered relations between Saudi Arabia and the United States for decades, never I never had seen an American president being refused an exchange with the Saudi leader. Our historic relationship, based on the exchange of oil for security, is clearly in question.” Since arriving in the White House, Biden hasn’t even bothered to appoint an ambassador to Riyadh…
Saudi prince doesn’t care what Joe Biden thinks
The crown prince of Saudi Arabia, who survived his banishment from the international community, knows he is in a position of strength. In an interview with the American magazine The Atlantic at the beginning of March, MBS says that he has “nothing to do” with what the American president thinks.
“The aplomb that these leaders now display is symptomatic of their growing influence in the world, believes Fatiha Dazi-Héni, researcher at the Institute for Strategic Research of the Military School and author of Saudi Arabia in 100 questions (Tallandier, 2020). They are betting on the probable last oil boom in their history and counting on their powerful sovereign wealth funds to invest in the post-oil era.” As a sign of this new deal, Saudi Arabia put 81 prisoners to death on March 12, just before the visit of Boris Johnson The West responded to this mass execution only with heavy silence.
Tired of moral lessons on human rights and disappointed by the American “pivot” towards Asia, Riyadh is getting closer to Russia and China every day. “The alliance between MBS and Putin works wonderfully for both of them, points out David Ottaway. It has great economic value since they agree to keep oil prices high, and great political value since it offers the Saudis alternatives to their dependence on the United States.”
Washington, the kingdom’s main arms supplier, is becoming an increasingly unreliable protector, trying to sign a diplomatic agreement with the Iranian enemy. Moscow has offered to provide the Saudis with its S-400 air defense system, helicopters and even nuclear power plants. For now, MBS has not responded.
But Riyadh is already buying Chinese missiles and working with Beijing to make new military drones. In mid-March, the Saudi government hinted that it would soon accept payment in yuan, the Chinese currency, for its oil exports to China – a quarter of its production. The message is clear: not only is MBS no longer alone, but he has new friends.