Fact: Terrorist threat level
The threat level consists of five steps:
1. No threat. No threat has been identified.
2. Low threat. The probability that actors have the intention and ability to carry out attacks is low.
3. Increased threat. The probability that actors have the intention and ability to carry out attacks is elevated.
4. High threat. The probability that actors have the intention and ability to carry out attacks is high. Threat level four requires that there be a concrete threat to Sweden.
5. Very loud. The probability that actors have the intention and ability to carry out attacks is very high. It is required that a concrete threat must be imminent or imminent. This level has so far not been used.
The decision on the terrorist threat level in Sweden is made by the head of the security police.
— This type of violation is not something you forget. They remain in the consciousness and the image of Sweden as a country that violates Islam, it will remain over time, says Fredrik Hallström, head of counter-terrorism at Säpo.
Since the far-right Rasmus Paludan’s Koran burning outside the Turkish embassy in January, Säpo has seen how global terrorist organizations are targeting Sweden with a completely new force.
Fredrik Hallström speaks of “a huge export of hate”.
— In general, it is IS and al-Qaeda that paint Sweden as a more prioritized actor based on what has happened.
The result is that Sweden has ended up in a more dangerous situation. Extremists in both Sweden and Europe now appear to have heeded the calls.
“is serious”
This week it became known that two German brothers were arrested in Germany, suspected of having planned a terrorist attack against a church in Sweden. And in April, Säpo struck in a dawn raid against five people in several places in Sweden who are suspected of being accused of terrorist crimes.
Both cases are said to have connections to the Koran burnings.
“It is clear that it is serious,” says Fredrik Hallström about the cases that have been revealed.
He emphasizes that it confirms what Säpo said earlier, that the Koran burnings were threatening and that Sweden has gone from a legitimate to a priority target.
According to Hallström, the number of terrorist attacks aimed at Sweden has not slowed significantly since January.
— We still see a large amount of information coming to us.
“Has been high”
In the Swedish case, four people, including a 15-year-old boy, are still in custody. Several of them stated have been active in closed groups that praised violent Islamism and must have openly shown support for IS.
According to Säpo, the case is one of several that are being worked on after the Koran burning. Fredrik Hallström does not want to go into how many more it is about and whether further arrests can be expected in the future.
At the same time, the Swedish terror threat level remains at a third on the five-point scale, which means that a terrorist act can occur. However, Hallström emphasizes that the level is “fluctuating”.
— It is not a static third. During certain periods it has been low and during others very high.
TT: How close have you been to going up to a four during this period?
— That cannot be answered. But we have had an ongoing dialogue and discussion about the threat level scale.
Harder to detect
After the strong reactions, the Police Authority decided in February to deny new Koran burnings, citing that it affects the threat picture against Sweden. The issue is now pending before the Court of Appeal in Stockholm.
TT: Are you concerned that there will be more Koran burnings in Sweden?
— Worried is the wrong word, but we are awake and fully aware that it could happen, says Fredrik Hallström.
Preparedness exists – but Hallström also emphasizes that it has become more complicated for Säpo to detect terrorist threats when more and more activities take place via encrypted and anonymized services and on closed forums.
— Perceiving and understanding the threat, identifying and locating potential attackers, has never been as difficult as it is now.
— It is a challenge that worries me.