On June 24, the columns of Wagner’s mercenaries climbed towards Moscow. While they are in full mutiny against the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin multiplies the telephone calls to his allies, but these procrastinate. Many leaders refer only to “internal Russian affairs”. Only one does not hesitate to proclaim his total support for the Russian president: Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The Turkish head of state no doubt returns the elevator to Moscow for its valuable information and its help during the failed coup in Ankara on July 15, 2016. At the time, Putin would have gone so far as to propose At stay to deploy Russian special forces, the famous spetsnazthen stationed on two ships anchored in Turkish waters.
The cooperation between the two men, the tsar and the new sultan, has reached new heights in recent months, particularly in the economic field. Thus the first Turkish civilian nuclear power plant, inaugurated at the end of April, built and administered by the Russian public giant Rosatom; the 5 million Russian tourists – or even more – expected on Turkish beaches this summer; or even Russian gas supplied on credit during the winter. So many lifelines for a Turkish economy that continues to nose dive under the weight of hyperinflation and its trade balance deficit.
With Russia, on the other hand, Turkish exports have miraculously doubled since the start of the invasion of Ukraine. Sanctioned by Europe, Moscow now gets its supplies partly thanks to the Turkish market, Ankara having rejected the application of international sanctions under the “policy of balance” advocated by the Head of State between its European partners and Russia. But Turkey is not only a supply base for Moscow: it has become a platform for European companies wishing to free themselves from sanctions and continue to trade with Russia. And if European Union exports to Turkey increased by 22 billion euros in 2022, there is a reason: they are not intended for the Turkish market…
“I run no risk”
Murat, 35, is a logistics engineer based in Istanbul. From the start of the conflict, contacted by Russian and European clients, the young Turkish entrepreneur sniffed out good deals and created his own company, exclusively dedicated to circumventing sanctions against Russia. “I have customers all over Europe, especially Spanish and Italian, he testifies, having just returned from a trip to Madrid. They send me their merchandise as if it were intended for me and I returns to Russia in my name for a 6% commission. It’s as simple as that.”
More problematic, some of the goods it transports to Russia – steel, but also agricultural machinery from Romania and machine parts – can have a dual use, both civilian and military, and serve in fine to fuel the Russian war effort. The engines are able, for example, to be dismantled and then used on Russian offensive equipment or used for the machine tools essential to the production of weapons. However, the young man is not worried. “I run no risk, everyone knows very well what is going on, but Europeans like Turks choose to close their eyes”, considers Murat.
No question, however, of being too greedy, by investing for example in the export of semiconductors. A very lucrative market but closely watched by the United States, which wants to dry up Russia’s supply of electronic chips, essential for the proper functioning of its military industry. In April, two Turkish companies were targeted by American sanctions for having sold chips produced partly in the United States to Russia.
Regularly called to order by its European and American partners, Turkey has promised to curb the use of its territory to evade sanctions. In March, Ankara communicated widely on sending Turkish companies and customs services a list of products now banned from export to Russia. A trompe-l’oeil that makes Murat smile. “All they have done is take away the possibility of making Russia the final place of arrival of the goods, but nothing prevents, for example, sending them to Kazakhstan, transporting them in transit to a Russian port and make the trucks forget to pick them up, the contractor points out. All you risk is running into a suspicious official who will ask for his share to turn a blind eye.” During the first six months of 2023, Turkish exports to Kazakhstan have also made a good record of 67.5%… French companies are also affected by the phenomenon, like the clothing manufacturer Lacoste, called into question by a Ukrainian deputy, for having granted a manufacturing license to a Turkish partner distributing Eastern Europe… and Russia.
“You find a Turkish associate…”
Rather than going through intermediaries, some Russian businessmen have chosen to operate directly from Turkey, as explained by Anna, a young lawyer who left Moscow out of rejection of the Putin regime, but nevertheless accompanies Russian clients with less political motivations: “To avoid paperwork and complications, you find a Turkish partner (either a real partner or a nominee) and you create your company which will then have access to the customs union between Turkey and the EU to export or import goods.
In recent months, “simple” Russian exiles have been finding it increasingly difficult to obtain residence permits in Turkey, but the question does not arise for these businessmen, who are able to afford the assistance of Russian lawyers or turkish. Especially since Turkey, which has seen its national currency plummet by nearly 30% against the dollar since Erdogan’s re-election on May 24, is seeking to attract foreign currencies. “If necessary, the purchase of real estate worth 400,000 dollars or an investment of 500,000 dollars in a Turkish bank for at least three years gives you the right to a residence permit and to obtain of Turkish nationality,” continues Anna.
Ankara’s role in circumventing sanctions is increasingly exasperating its Western allies, especially as litigation accumulates. If Turkey has stopped blocking Sweden’s entry into NATO, Ankara is irritated by attempts at cooperation between the Atlantic Alliance and the Republic of Cyprus, whose northern part has been occupied by Turkish troops since 1974, while Turkey wants to be given stronger control over the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits which control maritime traffic between the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. To obtain guarantees from NATO in this sense, it has been blocking for more than a month the adoption of the new common defense plan against Russia, the most ambitious since the end of the cold war, to the despair of its partners. Europeans and Americans.
During the spring elections in Turkey, the opposition, which had pledged to respect the sanctions against Moscow in the event of victory, had claimed to have evidence of Russian interference in the electoral campaign, in particular through deepfakes, these fake videos made by artificial intelligence. Missed. The re-election of Erdogan has not finished doing the business of the Kremlin… and of certain companies, more concerned with their income statement than with compliance with Western sanctions.