Sama Bilbao y Leon: “The crisis puts nuclear power back at the center of the game”

Seen from Europe, the return of the atom seems almost obvious. France, Great Britain, Poland, Czech Republic, Netherlands, Finland or even Sweden… Since the beginning of the crisis, many countries of the Old Continent have decided to reconnect with the thread of their history with nuclear power. Even Germany, which seemed to have definitively decided the fate of its power plants, is wondering about extending their lifespan. But is this revival just a flash in the pan confined to Europe? To hear Sama Bilbao y León, Director General of the World Nuclear Association (WNA), an organization that brings the sector to the international level, the revival of nuclear power is a global phenomenon. In a report published in July, his association judges that nuclear power will see the number of reactors double within twenty years.

L’Express: In a recent statement, you felt that the context of the energy crisis and the war in Ukraine accentuated thee need for nuclear energy. Can you explain to us why?

Sama Bilbao y Leon: The crisis, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, has highlighted the vulnerability of our energy systems when they are so dependent on imported fossil fuels. Much of Europe is highly dependent Russian gas imports. Electricity and heating prices are skyrocketing for many homes. Countries in Europe and around the world such as China, the United States or India were already planning to increase their use of nuclear energy, alongside renewable energies, but the energy crisis is a new catalyst. Nuclear power not only contributes to combating climate change, but also to building a more resilient and affordable energy system.

The WNA explains in some of its scenarios that nuclear capacity could double by 2040, even though the latter has been declining for ten years. Isn’t that too optimistic?

Our forecast for the next few years foresees the construction of 4GW of capacity per year during this decade [la puissance installée de quatre réacteurs nucléaires environ, NDLR] and 17 GW per year in the 2030s. It should be noted that in recent years we have already reached the target of 4 GW per year. But these creations have been offset by the closure of reactors. These closures are essentially the consequence of political abandonments, for example in Germany, or because of economic closures in countries with poorly structured markets where nuclear power did not play on equal terms with other energies. But the tone has changed. Everyone now sees the benefits of maintaining existing nuclear capabilities.

Countries are changing their minds about the policies adopted after the Fukushima disaster. South Korea, Japan and France have given up plans to phase out or phase out nuclear power. The International Energy Agency also considers that extending the operation of existing nuclear reactors is one of the least expensive forms of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Yes, our most optimistic scenario predicts annual net increases of 12 GW in the 2020s and 32 GW in the 2030s. over 30 GW in the mid-1980s.

Until now, nuclear has above all been an energy of rich countries. Isn’t this a limiting factor for its development?

I do not believe. There is an expectation in many other countries. In the Middle East, the United Arab Emirates is in the process of starting up its first nuclear power plant in Barakah. The first two reactors are in service and two others will join them. Together, they will meet up to 25% of the country’s electricity demand. Egypt, which will host the United Nations conference on climate change in COP27 later this year, is setting a commendable example by choosing to invest in nuclear energy with a project that has just started. It will become the second African nation to join the global network of nuclear power plants.

In South America, Argentina and Brazil have used nuclear power since the 1980s. These countries are now looking to expand their capacity with new power plant construction programs. Many other developing countries will seek to follow their example. By collaborating with well-established world suppliers of reactors and by loosening the financing constraint via, in particular, the possibility for multilateral banks to include nuclear energy among the projects they finance, these countries will be able to contribute to the establishment of ambitious programs.

For twenty years, the nuclear industry has been characterized by costly projects, regularly exceeding the planned commissioning deadlines. Some nuclear sectors, notably in France or the United States, have not gone far from bankruptcy. Can the industry rise to the challenge?

With easier access to financing and the adoption of a fleet approach which will allow feedback and economies of scale, as well as technologies such as small modular reactors, the cost and time of nuclear construction will drop. .

What role will new technologies play in this nuclear revival? We talk a lot about small modular reactors, which have the potential to replace coal-fired power plants, but there are probably other examples…

Replacing coal with nuclear wherever possible is obviously a winning solution for the climate. Beyond the production of electricity, nuclear power can replace coal in many industrial uses by producing heat. The Poles think about it a lot.

It should be noted that electricity represents only a fifth of total energy consumption, the rest of our primary energy consumption being provided by fossil fuels. If we consider the electrification of uses to be essential, nuclear energy is the only credible and carbon-free option for most major heat production applications in industry.

Generation IV reactors, such as the prototype high-temperature reactor (HTR-PM) which recently started up at the Shidaowan site in the Chinese province of Shandong, and, in the future, molten salt reactors, are designed to produce heat over 700°C. This heat of nuclear origin can thus decarbonize other sectors of the economy – transport, chemicals and steel – and be used for district heating or the desalination of sea water. Naval nuclear propulsion could also revolutionize the global shipping industry.