This is not Vladimir Putin’s first attempt. Already in 2008, it was Georgia that Russia attacked. The invasion had stopped at the gates of Tbilisi, the capital, saved by diplomacy. A former French diplomat who became President of Georgia, Salomé Zurabishvili sees history repeating itself in Ukraine. To counter Putin’s desire for expansion, she is now calling for her country, but also Moldova and Ukraine, to join the European adventure.
L’Express: Can Vladimir Putin still get out of this conflict “from above”?
Salome Zurabishvili: There will necessarily be a diplomatic outcome, but it is no longer possible to appease Putin. He does not seek dialogue, he only raises his voice with, in recent days, blackmail for nuclear deterrence. He is in the psychological threat and he is also more known for that than for being a great warlord. He miscalculated his military operation. He thought he was demoralizing Ukraine, but he underestimated Europe, the Ukrainians and their capacity to resist, as well as the reaction of the Russian population.
Do you feel feverish?
Nothing is going as he had planned. In Putin’s entourage, there is an inability to correctly estimate the state of the balance of power. It is however a strategic subject for the Kremlin. The sanctions will weigh, including on this very closed power on itself. Few countries can resist such measures. I saw their effects on Iran [Salomé Zourabichvili fut coordinatrice du groupe d’experts du Conseil de sécurité de l’ONU chargé des sanctions contre l’Iran, NDLR]. What will Vladimir Putin do with his currencies if he can no longer change them? And the military effort will cost him dearly.
Our strength today is the support of our European friends
What effect can sanctions have in Russia?
We have seen protests in St. Petersburg and Moscow in the past, but never in so many Russian cities. Putin was caught in his own semantic trap. He held an ideological logorrhea by repeating that Ukraine is Russia, but when the average Russian sees his country bombard those they consider his own, Putin’s foundation weakens. He says: “We are one nation”, but he bombs the Donbass!
Are you worried that Georgia is next on “the list” ofPutin’s expansionist desires?
If Russia looked reality in the face, it would see that Georgia did not give up its European and Atlantic aspirations after the 2008 war. This does not mean that the situation is not difficult: there are tensions permanently, with the taking of hostages, in the occupied regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia where military bases have been set up. One could fear more incidents, as the two separatist regimes make declarations of mobilization. They fear a transfer of Russian forces to other fronts. But there is no provocation on our part. We do not want to give pretexts to new crises. Now, we also fear that Russia will not be able to demonstrate in Ukraine an image of strength and absolute power. Therefore, she could try to do it elsewhere. The important thing today for Georgia is not to make predictions about what the future manifestation of Russian aggression might be, but to consolidate our journey towards Europe, to overcome polarization and internal division . Our strength today is the support of our European friends.
Already in 2008, Georgia called on Europe and NATO to take stock of the threat posed by Putin, but you were not heard…
At the time, the mobilization was not the same. At the beginning of this war in Ukraine, I thought that there could be a “Georgian” scenario. That is to say that Europe and the international community leave Putin to be content with a few territories. He finally created in spite of himself this united constellation in Europe. Today, the situation has changed. In Kiev, Volodymyr Zelensky prepared his response. He spared nothing during this siege and mobilized an international media campaign. He drew his experience from the situation in Georgia, then in the Crimea, where there were few reactions. And Europe is no longer the same. Nobody expected such a change of doctrine in Germany. It is a historical fact! Emmanuel Macron, who was already the great leader of the restart of a Europe of power, can now count on a real partner across the Rhine. In addition to these two leaders, there is also a very united European leadership with Charles Michel and Ursula von der Leyen.
Is there a new European hope for Georgia?
I would even say that there is a window of opportunity. I still support our approach to integration into the European Union. To speak of rapprochement, of perspective and of a horizon which, moreover, continues to recede, is no longer sufficient to meet the expectations of the Ukrainian, Moldavian, Georgian and Eastern Balkan populations. In this context, it would be harmful to forget Georgia and Moldova in this European adventure. That’s what I said to Emmanuel Macron.
France, and you know it well, is seeing its presidential campaign shaken up. It has candidates who have made complacent speeches about Putin…
(She cuts). These speeches are outrageous and these candidates bear a heavy responsibility. It is speeches like these that have made Russia what it is today. Their populist phraseology and their admiration for great authoritarian leaders – to say the least – do Europe no credit.