(Finance) – The signs of recovery of the Greece they are also good news for our country and for our exporting companies. Although it still presents different critical issues internal, the exports Italian towards Athens should grow at an average annual rate of around 2% from 2023 to 2026, with diversified dynamics in the individual sectors, above all thanks to the disbursement of approximately 30 billion euros of funds linked to Greece 2.0 (the Greek National Recovery and Resilience Plan which includes 106 investments and 68 reforms). This is what an in-depth study by the Research Department of SACE.
THE markets financial they seem to reward the political stability gained by the country and the programmatic ideas shared by Prime Minister Mitsotakis in recent days. The elections at the end of June sanctioned, in a clear and decisive manner, the second term of office of the outgoing prime minister, as well as leader of the conservative New Democracy party, with a positive reaction from the markets (the yield on Greek bonds fell to an all-time low in the last 20 years). Among goals made explicit by the new government, after leaving the enhanced surveillance programme of the European Commission last year, there is the recovery of the investment grade by the rating agencies (currently the country is BB+) and the advance payment of a portion of the debt (approximately €5.3 billion to European countries), in addition to the reform from the public administration and interventions aimed at improving health and education.
According to SACE forecasts, which for the country (and in the light of the most recent data) could also be conservative, the exports Italian of goods in value will grow at an average annual rate of around 2% from 2023 to 2026, with diversified dynamics in the individual sectors. The broads investments mainly aimed at the energy and digital transition envisaged by Greece 2.0 in the infrastructural and other fields will be the main driver of the Italian demand for intermediate goods: this year rubber and plastic (+2.9%), chemical products (+2.7% ) and metals (+1.8%) will grow at a rate higher than the average of Italian exports to the country, with a further boost expected in the following years with the progressive implementation of the European plan.
The recovery of domestic demand, also thanks to the drop in inflation, will also be reflected in Italian exports of consumer goods – as emerges from the positive forecasts for 2023 for the textile and clothing sectors (+3.3%), wood products (+3%) – and agribusiness (2.2%). The trend of exports of investment goods (mainly machinery, which accounts for about 12% of Italian exports to the country) which, after a real boom in 2021, are already suffering from a physiological slowdown last year, destined to regain strength towards the end of the forecast horizon ; to drive the Italian sales of the sector will be in particular means of transport (+3.1% and +4.1% respectively this year and next).