1. What conclusions can be drawn from this measurement?
One explanation for the difference between the blocs is, of course, that things have gone so well for the Social Democrats. They have increased by 6.9 percentage points since the election. One reason for their increase is that they were seen a lot in the media. They have managed to find a strategy to criticize the Tidö parties which has obviously benefited them.
If you nail down the numbers, a few percentage points of the Social Democrats’ increase is due to the fact that it is support votes that at the election went to the Green Party, which have now gone back to S.
The Social Democrats have most likely taken a very large number of votes from the Center Party, which lost significantly. According to several surveys, the center voters’ candidate for prime minister is Magdalena Andersson.
Another explanation is that voters go to the party whose party leader is highly trusted. Here the Social Democrats have a big advantage. In this comparison, the red-green opposition has increased by 5.1% since the election, while the Tidö parties have decreased by 5.0%.
The Tidö parties have thus lost a large number of votes to the other side. It is probably explained by voters who feel let down by broken election promises and voters who think that the fight against the gangs is taking too long. That is Kristersson’s dilemma. The shootings and explosions will in all probability continue for many more years. If the Moderates cannot show clear results of their policy at the next election in 2026, many point to the fact that it will be a walking victory for the Social Democrats.
2. What explanation can there be for the Green Party increasing?
During the period, criticism has been raised that the government invests too little in the climate. Among other things, there has been a debate after the government presented its budget. There has been a long line of climate activists who have created debate and attention to the issue.
Another explanation for the rise of the Green Party is that Per Bolund decided to quit. It creates attention for the party. There is speculation as to who might possibly take over from him. It’s a bit like a company, which soon releases a news. Many green voters find it exciting.
The election of a new mouthpiece takes place November 17-19, when the Green Party has its congress in Örebro. Who it will be will be absolutely decisive for the party’s future in the coming years.
3. The center is approaching the Riksdag barrier. Why is the party doing so badly?
One of the reasons why Annie Lööf resigned was the poor election results. Then the party had 6.7%. In today’s TV4 Väljaroopinion, the Center Party backs down slightly and ends up at 4.3%. The Center has thus gone from a bad election result to lousy opinion figures. A real uphill climb for the new party leader Muharrem Demirok.
One explanation is that he is just a new party leader, and thus relatively unknown. Another is that he got off to a lousy start when it emerged that he had covered up two assault convictions for the election committee.
He himself believes that new policies will turn the opinion figures around. Among other things, he hopes for the new school policy, where the party has now loosened its staunch opposition to regulating profits in schools.