The announcement of the withdrawal can be a negotiation tactic or the beginning of a new effort, says Jarmo Mattila, the head teacher of military skills at the National Defense College.
Russia’s announcement of troop withdrawals could mean more air strikes on Ukrainians.
Russia announced on Tuesday that it would radically reduce its hostilities, including in the Kiev region. The rationale would be to focus on strengthening governance in the Donbas region.
Chief teacher of military skills at the National Defense College Jarmo Mattilan according to Russia will have to replace the performance of the ground forces with missiles and air strikes.
– Russia has already used a lot of missiles and precision weapons. They are not enough indefinitely. But they have older conventional equipment and a little more inaccurate armament that they can use, Mattila says.
Mattila points out that when accuracy deteriorates, it is compensated by the mass or number of weapons.
– Then there will be even more civilian losses.
It is also estimated from British military intelligence that Russia may replace the performance of its ground forces by increasing the use of artillery and missiles.
Withdrawal also does not mean that Russia will not try to tie up Ukrainian troops as much as possible.
– Russia must show activity outside the Donbas region as long as the war is going on. Otherwise, Ukraine could concentrate its forces there, Mattila points out.
Doubt in the air
Not much new information is yet available on the movements of Russian troops and the motives for withdrawing. Jarmo Mattila says that Russia’s announcement must be viewed with skepticism and that there are concrete signs of withdrawal.
– It may well be just negotiation tactics.
Withdrawal, he said, could also be a coercion dictated by the situation. In the direction of Kiev, Russia did not reach its actual targets. Extensive back areas can mean maintenance problems. In addition, the concentration of troops may be a reaction to Ukraine’s ongoing counterattacks.
– If the Russians are only statically in place, it will easily happen that they will remain inactive and the other will be a more active party.
On the other hand, Mattila does not believe in Russia’s claim that there was only a deception operation in Kiev.
– Yes, Russia intended to influence Kiev. Right from the start of the mission, there were their best troops there. Kiev was attacked by lands from the north and east, as well as landings by air strike forces. In addition, in Kiev there were special forces. The focus was not right anywhere. In all directions, the troops were quite equally strong.
No withdrawal noticeable?
There is some information that the Russian battalion has withdrawn to Russia and Belarus, where they are being serviced and organized.
On the other hand, according to the governor of the Chernihiv region northeast of Kiev, there are no signs of the withdrawal of Russian troops from the region.
The cities of Nizhny Novgorod and Chernihiv, among others, have been bombed during the night and morning, the governor Vyacheslav Chaus said.
The U.S. Department of Defense has suspected the withdrawal of troops. According to the Pentagon, the number of troops transferred is small, and instead of the actual withdrawal, units are being redeployed.
Negotiations are still ongoing
Focusing on the Donbass region could be the game movement Russia needs for negotiating tables. According to Mattila, Russia is thus underlining the importance of the region for itself.
– The Donbas may be an area where Russia does not want to give up in these negotiations. In addition, it may be crucial for the occupied southern coastal land, as well as the Crimea.
Mattila considers it possible that Russia may try to isolate eastern Ukraine.
– They can try to isolate the Ukrainian troops from the south towards Kharkov. But I’m not quite sure if I would make such a big mother. It would require a lot of power.
The best forces in Ukraine are also fighting in the same direction, Mattila reminds.
If the siege were successful, what would happen to the area inside the mother after the war? According to Mattila, the example can be seen in the separatist regions of Ukraine.
– If a ceasefire came and the territories remained in Russia’s hands, they would try to be Russianized. Russian passports have been distributed in the separatist areas and there are Russian schools. So I guess it would continue to work.
The situation in the Donbas would be different from the separatist areas, with Russia now openly attacking. As for the separatist regions, Russia denied that there was any official presence in the region.
– It would be clearer for Russia now.
Zelenskyi: Ukraine is not ready for compromises
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi stated in a video speech Tuesday night that Ukraine will continue negotiations but is not ready to compromise on the country’s independence and territorial integrity.
Mattila believes that both parties will have to agree on their own goals in the negotiations.
– It remains to be seen whether Russia is ready to withdraw and relinquish the territories it has taken over in northern Ukraine. The fighting is still ongoing.
You will be able to discuss the subject until Thursday evening, March 31, at 11 p.m.