The Russian retreat in Kherson is symbolically important, Jonsson emphasizes. It is the only regional capital Russia has captured since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February.
— This is an area that Russia has really tried to defend. For example, more troops were moved there this summer and they have tried to respond to Ukraine’s counteroffensive, he says.
Joakim Paasikivi, a lieutenant colonel who teaches military strategy at the Norwegian Defense Academy, also speaks of a major Russian defeat. Partly militarily, as Russia is now definitely unable to advance along the Black Sea coast towards Odessa, and partly politically.
— I think this will lead to great jubilation in Ukraine and a lot of questioning in Moscow. Above all, about why the war is not fought harder. The hawks will be disappointed, says Paasikivi.
Russian problems
The Russian forces have for a long time had problems on the western side of the Dnieper in Kherson, according to Oscar Jonsson.
— Since last summer, Ukraine has shelled the Russian positions in depth, which has made it more difficult for Russia to have its troops there.
The reversal makes it more difficult in Russia to politically defend the war, Jonsson believes. He refers to the large and unpopular mass mobilization that Russia has carried out and the country is also in desperate need of showing gains – but instead they go and lose the only regional capital they managed to conquer.
“Natural Barrier”
A retreat to the other side of the river means Russia loses an important foothold in case it tries to launch a new offensive in the future. This is because it is so difficult to cross the river, according to Jonsson.
— There will be a fairly natural barrier between the two sides. Russia will shift more forces to southern and eastern Ukraine.
Paasikivi says the Russian plan now is to establish a defensive line on the other bank of the Dnieper, in a southeasterly direction from the city of Kherson.
— I think that Russia wants to try to keep that line of defense stable during the winter, so that the Western countries will get tired and force Ukraine to the negotiating table. Which I think is unlikely.
Costly retreat
A Russian retreat under fire could be costly, says Paasikivi. Not least considering that Ukraine can reach the entire stretch of river with artillery.
— It will be a very difficult maneuver for the Russians.
If the front stabilizes, it could also free up Ukrainian forces for other counteroffensives, according to Paasikivi.
He dismisses Russian claims that Ukraine plans to blow up the nearby Kakhovka dam and flood parts of the region.
— As far as I can see, it is clear that the Russians benefit the most from it, for a number of different reasons. Mainly because it makes a Ukrainian advance more difficult. Here, there would be no clear military gain for Ukraine to do so, says Paasikivi.
Joakim Paasikivi, lieutenant colonel and teacher of military strategy at the Defense Academy. Archive image.
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