Russia wants to ensure that Crimea remains under Russian control and guarantees access to the country. However, this is not the only reason why Russia is at war right now in the eastern part of Ukraine.
Russia had to take Ukraine out of the way quickly. The intention was to bring the Ukrainian capital Kiev under control quickly and then change the country’s political leadership.
Neither happened.
Last night, Russia launched a major offensive in eastern Ukraine. Russia has a reason for that.
Russia moved the war to an area it believed it would gain from it and make the war somehow more acceptable.
– The areas occupied by Russia in eastern Ukraine are those where the Russian-speaking majority. They have also had the most positive attitude towards Russia, says University Researcher, Associate Professor of Russian History Simo Mikkonen From the University of Jyväskylä.
Russia apparently assumed that it would get pro-Russian and Russian-speaking residents from Eastern Ukraine. However, this did not happen.
– The fact that Ukraine speaks of Russia does not mean that it is leaning towards Russia. They are not Russian, but Russian-speaking areas. This difference is good to keep in mind, recalls Mikkonen.
Russia has justified its attack by, among other things, securing Russian-speaking conditions.
– The pro-Russian nature that has been there has almost completely diminished with the war, Simo Mikkonen believes.
Takeover of the railways
Russia launched a major offensive in eastern Ukraine the night between Monday and Tuesday.
The main concern of Russian forces is the takeover of the railways.
“The railways are extremely important from the point of view of the logistics and maintenance of the Russian armed forces and also from the point of view of servicing the separatist population in Donbass,” says the military professor. Janne Mäkitalo About the National Defense College.
The takeover of the railways will also hamper the transfer of Ukrainian troops and the operation of its army.
– The evacuation of civilians is also becoming more difficult, which causes more suffering to civilians, says Simo Mikkonen, a university researcher and docent in Russian history at the University of Jyväskylä.
Unclear past
Ukraine was an independent state for a short time at the turn of the 1910s and 1920s, but was caught in the middle of the Russian Civil War. The country soon became part of the Soviet Union.
A significant event in the current war was 1956, when the Crimean region was annexed to the Soviet Socialist Republic of Ukraine.
When Ukraine regained its independence after the break-up of the Soviet Union in 1991, its borders then became the borders of the Soviet Socialist Republic of Ukraine.
– From Russia’s point of view, Ukraine has never been seen as its own culture or state. According to them, the Ukrainian language has also been a kind of Russian-infected contaminant, says a university lecturer and docent in Russian history. Kati Parppei From the University of Eastern Finland in Joensuu.
Ukraine’s short period of independence a hundred years ago made Russia’s state borders unrealistic.
– Putin has justified the attack on the grounds that Ukraine does not have the right to exist independently. This is not a new idea in Russia, but revived for this war purpose, Parppei says.
An inaccurate past allows Russia to justify its attack.
– The time of independent Ukraine has been short, and Russia is trying to take advantage of it, says researcher Simo Mikkonen.
Securing Crimea
Russia took over Crimea, which belonged to Ukraine, in 2014. Russia justified the takeover, among other things, by the fact that Crimea has not historically belonged to Ukraine.
Perhaps more important to Russia, however, has been the conquest of Crimea because of its military significance. With the help of Crimean military bases, Russia is able to control both the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.
By taking over eastern Ukraine, Russia will be able to ensure that Crimea remains under Russian control.
“Russia is trying to take over Eastern Ukraine as much as possible in order to secure the land route to Crimea,” says Simo Mikkonen, a docent in Russian history at the University of Jyväskylä.
Guaranteeing negotiating positions
When a functioning negotiating link is established between Russia and Ukraine at some point, Russia wants to secure the best possible negotiating position for itself.
The more Russia has conquered Ukraine, the more it has a chance to blackmail Ukraine.
– Russia secures as much leverage as possible at the stage when it is possible to negotiate war and seek peace, says Simo Mikkonen, docent of Russian history.
He recalls that the war began in 2014.
– It has only now expanded significantly. Peace was never achieved so that the war would end.
Mikkonen believes that one of Russia’s key goals is to get Foreign countries to eventually recognize Crimea as Russia. That could be one of the conditions for peace.
– Russia does not seek peace at any cost. It is good for Russia that the situation remains open and that certain situations remain with Russia. That would be an extremely bad solution for Ukraine.
The sanctions surprised
The conquest of Crimea from Russia was quite easy. After the conquest, several states and the EU imposed sanctions and sanctions on Russia.
However, they were quite mild, and they had time to get used to them in Finland, among other places. University researcher Simo Mikkonen thinks that Russia has assumed that the new attack will not lead to insurmountable sanctions.
– Russia may have imagined that the EU and the United States, among others, would not stand behind Ukraine, believes Simo Mikkonen, a docent in Russian history at the University of Jyväskylä.
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