Western leaders have repeatedly said that Russia will not win the war in Ukraine. Often heard phrases also include: Russia has already lost.
However, the war has already been going on for almost a year and a half, and Russia still controls about a fifth of Ukraine’s surface area. In addition to Crimea, it has captured parts of five other administrative regions of Ukraine.
What if Russia wins?
We asked the director of the Estonian Center for International Defense Research From Kristi Raikiwhat would be the consequences of a Russian victory.
In this article, “Russia’s victory” refers to a situation where Russia owns the territories of Ukraine it has occupied. The regions would practically become part of Russia, even if other countries would not recognize the situation.
This happened, for example, to Crimea after the annexation in 2014.
At the end of the story, you get to present your own view of what kind of situation you think the war in Ukraine will end in. At the same time, you will find out what the other respondents think.
1. Territorial cessions would cause internal tensions
Raik considers a situation where neither gets a clear victory possible. Some areas would remain occupied by Russia.
So it would be a long occupation. For example, the occupation of the Baltic countries after World War II was not recognized in the West, but still the prevailing perception was that the occupation was permanent.
According to Raik, it is unlikely that Ukraine would accept the transfer of its territories.
– We are in a situation where the president Volodymyr Zelenskyi no concessions can be made once and for all, says Raik.
However, he considers it possible that in some situation the Ukrainians could make concessions on the Donbass region. The formerly important industrial area has been largely destroyed since 2014.
If Ukraine were to enter a “forced peace”, it could cause tensions in Ukraine, according to Raik. However, he does not see the risk of civil war.
– Russia has united the Ukrainian people.
However, if a group did not accept the concessions, it could try to seize power.
– However, I don’t think it’s likely, Raik says.
2. Russia would not be held accountable for its war crimes
The human suffering in Ukraine has been enormous. Tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians have died during the war. According to some estimates, there would have been even deaths in Mariupol alone 75,000 people.
In addition, millions of Ukrainians live as refugees.
Thousands of children have been separated from their families and forcibly taken to Russia. Large parts of Ukraine are in ruins after the war. Ukraine is already talking about reconstruction costs of more than one thousand billion euros. The list of Russian war crimes is long.
If Russia won, the Ukrainians would hardly get justice. Russia would not necessarily be held accountable for its war crimes.
This, according to Raik, leads to one of the most important reasons why Russia must not win in Ukraine.
– There would be a very high risk that war crimes would also occur in the future, says Raik.
3. Ukraine’s EU and NATO memberships in trouble
Raik wrote at the time of the Vilnius NATO summit that the defense alliance has caused a vicious circle with its attitude towards Ukraine. Ukraine does not dare to be called a member of NATO because it is a country at war.
So it is in Russia’s interest to keep the war going, so that Ukraine’s NATO application does not progress.
– Can EU and NATO membership even be possible if Russia occupies parts of Ukraine? thinks Raik.
Regarding Ukraine’s EU membership, Raik is more optimistic.
– The EU is unlikely to make a full turn in the other direction. However, joining would be difficult if parts of Ukraine were occupied, says Raik.
4. The international order would return to the past
With its attack, Russia is violating the international security order to which it is committed. It violates the principles of both the UN and the OSCE.
In terms of the security order and the credibility of the agreements, the outcome of the war is therefore of enormous importance. If Russia wins, it will serve as a signal to others as well to authoritarian countriesthat even fundamental agreements do not have to be adhered to.
– If Russia wins the war in Ukraine, it will break the order created after the Second World War, Raik states.
However, it must be kept in mind that during the Cold War, Russia extensively controlled the territories of its neighboring countries, and it was “de facto” accepted. At the same time, however, people in the West believed that the system was stable.
– At the beginning of the Cold War, the UN system and UN principles had already been created. In practice, the situation was that the Soviet Union occupied a considerable part of Europe.
In Raik’s opinion, the credibility of the UN has now suffered, but he does not believe that the UN Security Council will fall apart.
– Such big changes have happened through bigger wars, says Raik.
5. Europe should prepare for a Russian attack
Many experts have warned that it would only be a matter of time before Russia would attack its next target if it first achieved its goal in Ukraine. Raik signs the claim.
– Yes, you have to be prepared for that. If we think about Russia’s threat to other countries, Russia clearly defined its own goals in December 2021.
It required NATO to withdraw to the 1997 borders. If Russia could sell the Ukraine operation to its people as a victory, it would probably stick to its goal.
– Dissolving NATO is a big strategic dream for Russia. Russia could try to challenge the validity of NATO Article 5 by launching a hybrid attack on a NATO country. Such scenarios are to be considered, says Raik.
According to Raik, Russia would also be a threat to Finland, despite NATO membership.
– It is not realistic at the moment, but we are prepared for the fact that Russia might attack in a few years.
6. China would be allowed to talk and could start a war on Taiwan
According to Raik, China is closely monitoring the situation in Ukraine. War has a significant impact on its role. Many western leaders has warnedthat China could attack Taiwan if Russia succeeds in Ukraine.
– Russia’s victory would be a sign of the West’s weakness for China. It would act as an encouragement to it.
The opposite message to China has been that the West has shown itself to be united regarding Ukraine.
– The war is a cautionary example for China of how difficult it is to enter into a military conflict, where the risk is a strong reaction from the West. It would have a heavy price, says Raik.
7. The “terrible mental state” of Russian society could continue
Putin has been in power for more than 20 years, and his popularity has been at its highest ever since Russia’s military successes, according to Russian opinion polls.
After the conquest of Crimea, Putin’s approval rating was almost 90 percent. According to the Levada research institute, after the start of the “special operation”, Putin’s support has remained at around 80 percent.
You can almost conclude from this that Putin’s staying in power is based on regular military victories.
According to Raik, the only way to change Russian society would be a clear military defeat in Ukraine. It could set in motion a big change.
– It has been shocking that the support of ordinary Russians for military operations has been so extensive. Although it has mostly been passive support, the mental state of Russian society looks pretty terrible, says Raik.
At the end of the day, nobody knows what the end of the war will bring, Raik states. A clear defeat of Russia can also be a danger for Western countries.
– The desire for revenge could remain smoldering in Russia. It is difficult to see any very good scenario for Russia’s near future development. That’s why we have to be prepared for the fact that Russia’s threat will remain, says Raik.
Click on the option below that you think is the most likely outcome of the war. You can also see how others have answered.