The war in Ukraine is unique.
Although the warring parties have advanced technology such as drones and advanced weapon systems, the war in Ukraine is more reminiscent of the great world wars of the last century than any war of the past 30 years.
More than a hundred years ago during the First World War, soldiers sat in trenches. The situation has hardly changed in the 2020s. This is the opinion of the professor of economic history at the University of Helsinki Jari Eloranta.
– The war in Ukraine has shown that wars cannot be won remotely as video games, at least not yet.
What is unique about the war in Ukraine is that never before has the use of combat aircraft been so massive.
However, Russia’s war strategy is like something from the Soviet Army’s manual.
– The style of warfare is shocking. Russia has shown that it is ready to wage a total war, where civilian casualties are acceptable and civilian targets can be attacked, says Eloranta.
The war has been going on for a year already.
The researcher fears that the situation in Ukraine may escalate into a positional war. Then there may be a significant number of new victims ahead.
1) Military losses resemble the winter war
Eloranta sees similarities in the war in Ukraine to the winter war that broke out between Finland and the Soviet Union in 1939.
According to Eloranta, Ukraine has been preparing for an escalation of the conflict since 2014, in the same way that Finland was in the 1930s.
– Money has been put into defense and therefore the success has been quite moderate, both in Finland in the winter war and in Ukraine in this war.
The larger size of Ukraine makes the scale of the war bigger than the winter war.
In the Winter War, more than five Russians fell for every one Finn. The situation is now repeating itself in almost the same way in Ukraine.
– Russia’s losses are already in the category of the winter war, says Eloranta.
Russian military losses, i.e. dead and wounded in total, vary between 5,000 and 200,000 according to different estimates. Ukraine is estimated to have lost between 10,000 and 100,000 men.
The Russian Ministry of Defense has been silent about its losses. In September, the country’s authorities reported about 5,000 casualties. Since then, Russia has not updated the information about the dead soldiers.
Open sources have managed to confirm the death of at least 13,000 Russian soldiers.
One of the unique features of the war in Ukraine is that Russia has lost an extraordinary number of officers during the war of aggression. At least 1,200 deaths have been confirmed from open sources.
According to Eloranta, this indicates that Russia’s military leadership is weak and ineffective.
– The information does not move or it is very rigid. The officers got close to the front. When this is combined with the fact that Ukraine has advanced weapons systems and Western intelligence, the military leadership can be easily attacked.
2) The number of civilian casualties is reminiscent of the wars in Chechnya
In the 21st century, in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, in which Western countries also participated, efforts were made to minimize civilian casualties.
However, Russia now seems to be attacking Ukrainian civilians on the contrary.
For example, since the end of autumn, Russia has targeted a considerable number of attacks on Ukrainian civilians and civilian infrastructure.
According to Eloranta, from the point of view of civilian casualties, the war in Ukraine is very similar to Russia’s war in Chechnya between 1999 and 2009.
– It was a very brutal war, because Russia aimed its attacks specifically at the civilian population. This was intended to discourage resistance.
According to Russia, 10,000 civilians died in Chechnya, but according to Chechens, the number of civilian victims of the war may be as high as 250,000.
There is also no accurate information on civilian casualties in Ukraine. At least 7,000 civilian deaths have come to the UN’s attention during the year.
Eloranta says it’s a lot. At least if the situation is compared to the wars of the last 30 years.
3) More Ukrainian refugees than in 2015
According to the UN, eight million people have fled Ukraine to Europe. In addition, there are more than five million internally displaced people in Ukraine.
So more Ukrainians have come to Europe than Syrians during the European refugee crisis in 2015.
The attitude towards Ukrainian refugees has been kinder than towards those who fled from Syria.
Eloranta says that the Ukrainian refugees have made visible the racist structures prevailing in Europe.
– The arrival of Ukrainians in Europe has not generated nearly as strong resistance or brought anti-refugee parties into politics.
The researcher is even surprised by how few Ukrainian refugees have come to Finland. According to the Ministry of the Interior, by December, 47,000 Ukrainians have applied for protection in Finland.
– They certainly chose their target country carefully. Many may wonder whether Finland or Estonia will be the next target of Russia’s attack. Also, the large share of the Russian population in our country certainly affects whether Ukrainians want to come here, Eloranta reflects.
4) War crimes in the style of ancient Rome
By February, the Russians had reportedly committed more than 65,000 war crimes in Ukraine.
According to Eloranta, such a number of crimes suggests that there have probably been thousands of perpetrators.
For comparison: in the aftermath of the bloody Balkan wars, 160 people have been accused or convicted at the European Court of Human Rights.
– The number of war crimes shows how brutal a war Russia is waging. This is an unprecedentedly ruthless course of action, especially when it is not a civil war.
The majority of war crimes committed by Russia have targeted civilians, but Russia has also committed serious environmental crimes. For them, a point of comparison must be sought from the distant past, ancient Rome.
In the famous last Carthaginian War, the Romans destroyed the city of Carthage and when they retreated, they destroyed the crops so that nothing would ever grow in the area again.
– Now the wheel has turned so that Russia seems to be using similar tactics, especially during the withdrawal, says Eloranta.
In addition to destroying farmland and dams, Russia has targeted the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant area, which has raised concerns about the future of all humanity.
5) Ukraine can get hold of Russia with familiar tactics from the Second World War
Before the start of the war, Russia had a great material superiority, but with the great losses of Russia, the situation has leveled off.
– Ukraine’s capacity has not declined, but the power relations have become more even, Eloranta states.
From the point of view of armaments, Ukraine cannot match Russia in the air or at sea, but in the land war, Ukraine has managed to balance the situation by destroying and capturing Russian military equipment.
In addition, Ukraine has received arms aid from the West, such as Himars rocket launcher systems and modern tanks.
– In the Second World War, we saw that a very dominant technology, such as a new tank, can change the direction of battles.
Although, for example, only dozens of Leopard tanks have been promised to Ukraine, it may be enough to gain superiority.
You can follow the most important events of the war in this updated article.
Also listen to:
The world is talking podcast: What is it like to work as a journalist in a country that is being attacked by Russia?
Also watch the 8-minute program: What is it like to report from the middle of the war, Antti Kuronen?