KIEV The Ukrainian and Russian delegations negotiated the terms of peace at the end of March in Istanbul. After that, negotiations on the end of the war stopped completely.
Negotiations have taken place on other details related to the war, such as grain export, the exchange of prisoners of war and nuclear safety, but not on peace.
A month ago, the president of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi knocked out the opportunity to negotiate with the Russian president Vladimir Putin with. He even signed an order prohibiting such negotiations.
After that, several calls began to be heard from the direction of Russia to return to the negotiating table – for the first time during the war, without any preconditions for Ukraine.
Ukraine’s reaction was muted.
The reason is that the negotiations are currently in the interests of Russia, but not Ukraine, says the director of the Ukrainian political research center Penta Volodymyr Fesenko.
– Russia is now militarily and politically in a weak position. Russia does not have enough weapons or even soldiers, despite the initiative, says Fesenko.
“A wolf in sheep’s clothing”
According to Fesenko, the main reason that Ukraine does not want negotiations is a deep distrust of Putin’s administration.
When Putin spoke about peace at the Valdai discussion forum at the end of October, he sounded like a wolf in sheep’s clothing, says Fesenko.
– In Kiev, these “peace requests” are considered a tactical trap. Russia wants to take a break to save its forces and gather new resources so that it can go to war with a new rush, says Fesenko.
Led by him Penta (you switch to another service) is a center founded in 2001 whose mission is to produce practical research on politics and election processes.
A Ukrainian military expert agrees with Fesenko Serhiy Hrabskyi. He is a reserve colonel who has worked in crisis management missions in Kosovo and Iraq, and has founded a peacekeepers organization in Ukraine.
According to Hrabsky, returning Kherson to Ukraine’s control only reduces the possibility of negotiations.
– The liberation of Kherson gives additional impetus to the advance of the Ukrainian forces. We will also see that even worse war crimes have been committed in the newly liberated areas than in Butša or Izjum, says Hrabskyi.
The three most important conditions for negotiations
Volodymyr Fesenko, director of the Penta Center, lists three conditions under which he thinks Ukraine can agree to the negotiations. The most important of them would be that Russia withdraws from all its occupied territories in Ukraine.
– It is possible that the withdrawal of the Russian troops to the positions where they were before February 24 would be enough to start the negotiations. But even in that case, negotiations would also be held on the fate of Crimea and Donbass.
Another condition would be the payment of war reparations.
– According to various estimates, infrastructure worth 700 billion or even a trillion dollars has been destroyed in Ukraine, and this must be replaced.
The third condition would be bringing war criminals to justice.
– This could also be done without Russia. We would just have to decide whether to handle it through the International Criminal Court or through a separate trial, says Fesenko.
He does not believe that any kind of security guarantees would be agreed upon in possible peace negotiations.
– Russia has already broken so many international agreements concerning Ukraine. Our security is best guaranteed by an efficient state, strong defense forces and a stable economy.
Putin’s means of blackmail are few
Fesenko says that the Ukrainian leadership’s reluctance to negotiate with Russia has strong popular support.
– A critical attitude towards Russia’s so-called peace initiatives is the will of the entire nation. According to various surveys, more than 80 percent of Ukrainians hope that the war will end with the liberation of all occupied territories.
Advisor to Zelenskyi’s presidential office Mihajlo Podoljak wrote on Twitter in early November that Ukraine’s only possible negotiating delegation could include Abrams, Leopard, Marder and Himars. By this he was referring to the armaments to be delivered to Ukraine.
Putin’s means of influencing Ukrainians’ willingness to negotiate are running low, says Fesenko. In addition to missile strikes, Russia tries to win with numerical superiority of soldiers and nuclear attack.
– Can society’s moods change? It cannot be ruled out. But the attacks on civilian infrastructure in recent weeks, for example, have not led to that. Ukrainians don’t blame the Ukrainian authorities for the lack of electricity, but Putin and Russian aggression.
Serhij Hrabskyi says that Russia’s means of warfare have not changed much over the decades.
– Russia is trying to persuade Ukraine to negotiate in the same way as Finland once did, i.e. by setting fire to cities. Russia has not taken any genuine steps towards peace. Otto von Bismarck to quote the words, these initiatives are not worth the paper they are written on.
Western pressure – or suggestions?
National Security Advisor to the President of the United States Jake Sullivan visited Kiev in early November. In the international media, it was assumed that he pressured the Ukrainian president to be open to the possibility of negotiations.
Researcher Fesenko would not speak of pressure but of suggestions.
– Western countries can give Ukraine advice, but they cannot put pressure on it. The Minsk agreements on Donbas have shown that Russia sees concessions as weakness and that an aggressor can never be trusted, he says.
Military expert Serhij Hrabskyi also does not believe that Western countries can dictate peace terms to Ukraine. Such an action would not have the support of the people in the West, he estimated.
– The majority of Americans are convinced that Ukraine must win the war. That’s why politicians cannot afford to propose any kind of invalid conditions to Ukraine for an agreement with Russia, Hrabskyi estimates.
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