Russia’s blockade hangs 5% of world’s exports of grain in Ukraine – even robbed grain could be for food shortages

Ukraine is one of the world’s largest grain producers. If grain is left in storage due to the Russian attack, the result could be an even worse global food crisis.

Ukrainian grain is of great importance on the world market. Research Professor at the Natural Resources Center Jyrki Niemi illustrates that the 20-25 million tonnes of cereals stuck in Ukraine account for around 5% of world annual cereal exports.

– This is a significant amount considering that in recent years world cereal production has only been able to surpass demand, Niemi says in an interview with .

Grain prices were on the rise even before the Russian invasion. According to Niemi, the war in a major export country has exacerbated the global food crisis, which has already been exacerbated by the corona pandemic.

Rising prices are hitting all countries dependent on grain imports, especially poor households. The war will further increase the number of hungry people.

– The countries that have imported grain, especially from Ukraine, are now most concerned. The situation has caused uncertainty and panic about how to replace Ukrainian grain, Niemi says.

Ukraine’s exports normally feed about 400 million people, especially in Africa and the Middle East.

The solution to the problem is laborious, because there are two sides in the war – invading Russia and defending Ukraine. In addition, Turkey, the West and Ukraine’s grain-dependent countries have a role to play in the grain game.

The background is also influenced by propaganda and Russia’s attempt to appear as a benefactor of the world’s poorest countries.

“Russia is trying to blame Ukraine and the West for this problem, even though Russia itself has caused it by starting this war and preventing ships from leaving the port,” says a docent in military sciences at the National Defense College. Ilmari Käihkö Ylelle.

According to Käihko, Russia blames the situation on the West so that its own reputation is not damaged in the Middle East and Africa, where it still enjoys a relatively high level of understanding.

According to Käihkö, Russia’s goal is to subjugate Ukraine economically by cutting its export revenues. At the same time, it is straining the West by fueling conflicts in countries where rising prices mean famine at worst.

The Russian invasion has marked the transformation of the northern Black Sea into a stage of naval warfare. Over the course of the spring, the battle for control of Snake Island first rose to the headlines, followed by the destruction of Moscow, the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

From Ukraine’s point of view, the Russian warships and the Sevastopol naval base in Crimea are embargoed.

Mines have risen to the center of controversy. In a war of defense, the protection of ports by mines is considered a legal form of warfare. However, the parties are accusing each other of drifting sea mines, Reuters reports.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has called on Ukraine to clear mines, citing the opening of grain routes.

The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry has rejected this. The British Guardian reports that demining would take up to six months, according to Ukraine.

– Ukraine does not trust Russia and assumes that Russia’s motive is to attack ports in the Black Sea, says Ilmari Käihkö, docent of military sciences.

According to him, Ukraine also fears that if it clears its mines, Russia will mine the sea area.

Protecting grain transport at sea has its own chapter. Among other things, the Lithuanian Foreign Minister has suggested that NATO warships go to protect grain transports against the Russian threat. Protecting shipments on warships in the Black Sea would require Turkey’s consent.

The grain dispute has also led to allegations of theft. According to Ukraine, Russia is chartering Ukrainian grain for its own use. Already in May, the United States warned grain-receiving African countries that grain was seized in Ukraine as cargo from Russian cargo ships.

– Some countries have refused to buy, but there are certainly countries where there is no terrible question about where the grain comes from when there is a threat of famine. Emergency does not read the law, says research professor Jyrki Niemi.

At a press conference in Ankara on Wednesday, a question posed by a Ukrainian journalist sparked Foreign Minister Lavrov and called the Ukrainians thieves.

The regional leaders appointed by Russia have acknowledged the takeover of the grain. Spokesman for the Russian-administered Crimean regime Oleg Kryutshkov has said, according to the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), that grain has been brought to Crimea by train from the Ukrainian city of Melitopol.

Russia conquered Melitopol early in the war.

Chief of the Occupied Territories of Zaporizhia Yevgeny Balitsky said the BBC that grain is being exported through the Crimea to the Middle East. According to him, the matter will be agreed with Turkey.

From Russia’s point of view, the arbitrary takeover of food may be explained by the fact that Moscow does not acknowledge that the territories it conquers belong to Ukraine.

According to research professor Niemi, the cereals of the last harvest season should be available on the world market in the coming weeks so that the next harvest can fit in the grain silos. If it does not fit, the new crop may be spoiled.

With Black Sea freight at a standstill, efforts have been made to alleviate the grain crisis by transporting trains and trucks to the EU. Although cumbersome transport by land is not a substitute for sea routes, it does alleviate the situation somewhat.

– EU support is particularly important. Efforts should be made to export grain from Ukraine along other routes as far as possible, for example to Polish ports. In this way, the notch that is created in the world market could be compensated in some way, Niemi says.

According to Niemi, financial and food aid for poor households in import-dependent countries is now important.

– There is a way to overcome this acute situation by giving richer countries support to the poorer ones, Niemi says.

Transport of grain by trucks, trains and barges along the Danube is difficult in practice.

Ukraine has a different track gauge than, for example, Poland, which means transferring cargo from one train to another. Truck transport, on the other hand, is heavily congested on the Polish border, among other places.

Ukraine and the Baltic countries have the same track gauge, and in principle there is a direct route to the large port of Klaipeda in Lithuania, for example. The problem is that the route passes through Belarus.

Opening the route would require the West to conclude some kind of agreement with Belarus Alexander Lukashenko which would mean at least a reduction in sanctions against Belarus.

In any case, it is almost impossible for lorries and trains to quickly replace the huge capacity of maritime transport. In practice, there is talk of up to hundreds of thousands of train wagon loads.

Experts have estimated that this would lead to an optimistic transport of up to 20% of the amount expected to be transported in Ukraine.

President of the African Union, President of Senegal Macky Sall warned earlier that Russia ‘s claim to the West as the culprit in the food crisis is gaining support in Africa.

Sall said Western countries should lift sanctions on Russian grain and fertilizer exports.

In fact, neither the US nor the EU has imposed sanctions on Russian grain or food exports.

In contrast, exports of Belarusian potash are subject to sanctions, and Belarusian potash has played a significant role in the global fertilizer industry. Imports of certain minerals used in fertilizer production from Russia into the EU have also been restricted.

Western countries have also imposed sanctions on Russian cargo ships, but those sanctions do not prevent grain exports from Russia to Africa, for example, contrary to Russia’s claims. The sanctions only prevent Russian-flagged ships from entering EU ports.

Discuss the topic 10.6. until 11 p.m.