Official losses in Russia and Ukraine are significantly lower than external estimates. According to an expert from the National Defense University, Russia has lost up to a quarter of its combat force.
Hanne Kinnunen,
Jaakko Parkkinen
6.5. 09:58 • Updated 6.5. 10:13
On Thursday morning, Russia said it had carried out large-scale missile strikes at Ukrainian stations, killing as many as 600 Ukrainian soldiers. This was reported by the news agency Reuters.
It is impossible to verify the estimate of the number of fallen, this has been the case throughout the war.
“I have reservations about all the numbers, the numbers are extremely challenging,” says the head of the military department, colonel. Petteri Kajanmaa About the National Defense College.
Estimates of the number of soldiers killed by the parties to the war differ significantly.
At the end of March, Russia officially estimated that 1,351 Russian soldiers had died in the war. Russia has claimed at least 14,000 militants from Ukrainians. Since then, the Kremlin has commented on the killings only as a guide.
In mid-April in an interview (you move to another service) President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi for its part, Ukraine had lost 2,500 to 3,000 troops and Russia 19,000 to 20,000.
The figures are difficult to interpret because they often include the wounded, imprisoned and escaped in addition to those who fell. According to Kajanmaa, no one can have correct information about the actual figures. Even if they are, they don’t want to be told because they don’t want to give the enemy information about their own fighting ability.
Russia and Ukraine have very little to say about their own military losses. There is another reason for encrypting information.
– If the losses were reported openly, it could lead to opposition to the war in the countries at war. This was the case in the United States when it reported on its military losses during the Vietnam War.
Ukraine’s fighting force has grown
U.S. and British military intelligence has its own estimates of Russia’s military losses.
According to Kajanmaa, their estimate is about a third lower than the figure of 24,700 losses reported by the Ukrainian armed forces, which is currently 24,700.
Britain and the United States will be able to identify war communications and receive information from there as well.
– If there are no more messages from any of the crowds, it can be concluded that there have been military losses there, Kajanmaa says.
The National Defense College does not have its own estimate of the military losses in Ukraine and Russia, as the loss figures are only one piece of information. Finnish professional soldiers are more interested in the intensity of the war and the actions of the Ukrainian and Russian forces.
– Ukraine will be able to replenish its troops and equipment faster than it is consumed. Since their launch, they have trained reservists, and Ukraine’s combat force has grown.
In the case of Russia, the opposite has happened.
– Russia has not been able to replenish its forces. At least a quarter of its fighting power has been lost, says Kajanmaa.
Both journalists and hobbyists are looking for information from open sources
Confirming information from the battlefield is difficult. The independent Russian news site Mediazona released on April 26th article (go to another service)where the site had sought to confirm each crash.
Reporters and volunteers at the site had investigated the deaths of 1,744 Russian soldiers. The site recalls that the actual number of crashes is much higher.
The war in the age of social media offers many opportunities to explore open sources for anyone. For example, Finnish reservists are updating situation map (switch to another service)which shows the front lines running in Ukraine.
They use and combine images and videos from the Telegram groups, satellite images and local newspapers, among other sources. Emil Kastehelmi is one of the maintainers of the situation map.
– When the war started, we wondered if we would also investigate military losses. However, we said we could not go for it. It would take a lot of time.
The Oryx website, founded by two Dutch people, documents with its assistants both Ukrainian and Russian stock losses based on open sources. An image is associated with each destroyed device. According to the lists, Russian equipment has been destroyed four times more than Ukrainian equipment.
The Baptismal Pearl believes that open source can also be used to interpret and infer some military defeat.
– If you see pictures of destroyed equipment from several independent sources, then it says that there have been military losses, says Kastehelmi.
You can discuss the matter on 7.5. until 11 p.m.